Vaughn Dalzell shares one of his favorite player props for 2023, the Over on Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards.
Tyreek Hill O/U 1,300.5 Receiving Yards
The Dolphins’ superstar receiver recorded career-highs in yards (1,710), receptions (119), targets (170), first downs (77) and games played (17) — he led Miami in all five categories.
There were tons of impressive aspects of setting career-highs last season for Hill, like the fact it was his first season with Miami and without Patrick Mahomes, plus Hill caught passes from three different starting quarterbacks.
With Tua Tagovailoa healthy and expected to play a full 17-game season, the sky is the limit for the Miami passing game.
The Dolphins’ quarterbacks combined for 4,765 passing yards on 368 completions and 584 attempts. Hill accounted for 35.8% of the yards, 32.3% of the receptions and 29.1% of the targets in his debut season with the Fins.
Hill recorded the highest target rate (33.6%), the most deep targets (36), the highest yards per route ran (3.38) in the NFL last year. He also finished top five in target share (31.6%), air yards (2,080), and yards after catch (495) — among other categories, per PlayerProfiler.
The former Chiefs wideout has recorded 1,400 receiving yards in two of his seven seasons and between 1,183 and 1,276 yards in three of the seven.
In the five seasons that Hill played at least 15 regular season games, the NFL’s fastest man averaged 1,377.4 yards per season on 95.8 receptions and 141.2 targets. To hit 1,300-plus yards, Hill needs to average 76.5 yards per game over 17 contests and 86.7 yards per game in 15 games.
Hill averages 77.2 yards per game over his career, so he needs to be his normal self over the course of the season, which isn’t asking much.
With Miami’s running game featuring Raheem Moster and Jeff Wilson, I expect Hill to have another massive season in the passing game whether or not Tua is healthy for 17 games. Outside of Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Miami’s top targets are Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Durham Smythe.
I played Hill Over 1,300.5 Receiving Yards for -110 odds and would go up to 1,399.5 yards for 1 unit.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 1,300.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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