1. What’s the political landscape?
In the aftermath of the financial crisis a decade ago, the traditional dominance of the Socialists and the center-right People’s Party over national politics was challenged by a European-style liberal party, Ciudadanos, and an anti-austerity movement, Unidas Podemos. Both upstarts were practically erased from the political map in regional and local elections in May. Yet there was no return to the old two-party system. Instead, far-right party Vox, already the third-biggest political force in parliament, swept to power in several regions and dozens of municipalities by teaming up with the PP. Vox’s success has given the far right a level of influence over Spanish policymaking not seen since the fall of General Francisco Franco’s 36-year dictatorship in 1975.
2. What’s driving the change?
Spain’s rapid transformation after Franco’s death from a conservative, predominantly Roman Catholic society to one of Europe’s most progressive democracies raised social tensions. The emergence of the far-left Podemos — and its entry into the national government in 2020 — further stoked culture wars in a country still marked by Franco’s dictatorship. A unilateral declaration of independence in Catalonia in 2017 added another layer of complexity to the mix. The violent protests that followed benefited nationalist movements like Vox, as did Sanchez’s decision to remove Franco’s body from a place of honor. Vox also defends bullfighting and has proposed building a wall to keep out immigrants.
3. How have Spain’s culture wars played out in government?
Sanchez signed a deal with Podemos to end months of political gridlock following the fourth election in four years. The country’s first coalition government since the 1936-39 Civil War pushed groundbreaking legislation in areas such as transgender rights and animal welfare that angered more moderate voters. The first made it easier for anyone over the age of 16 to change gender in official documents; the other calls for compulsory training for dog owners. Most damaging to Sanchez was the approval of the “only yes is yes” law, authored by Podemos, which aimed to make consent an important factor in defining a sex crime. The legislation had the unexpected result of reducing the sentences of hundreds of sex offenders and, in some cases, leading to their early release from jail. With tensions in the coalition near breaking point, Sanchez eventually apologized to victims and pushed through amendments in April with support from the PP.
4. How did culture wars affect the election campaign?
Sanchez played on fears about a PP-Vox government rolling back rights. PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo pledged to abolish the transgender rights law and shutter the equality ministry if he won the premiership. The region of Castilla y Leon — one of those where Vox is a junior partner in a PP-led government — caused an uproar after introducing new rules aimed at discouraging women from seeking abortions. Others have banned rainbow flags or canceled a screening of Walt Disney Co.’s animated film “Lightyear” for featuring a same-sex kiss. The opposition used issues of national identity against Sanchez, accusing him of relying on the votes of a Catalan party that was behind the failed secession attempt, as well a separatist group that was the political arm of the Basque terrorist organization. Many moderate voters uncomfortable with Sanchez’s dealings with separatists still voted for him in the July 23 election for fear that Vox would win power.
If no party manages to form a government, then Spain will need to hold another national election later in the year. If the PP is able to cobble together a majority with other parties and Vox, it may be forced to take a harder line on hot-button issues like LGBTQ rights, gender violence and the environment. That could give momentum to far-right and populist parties elsewhere in Europe, including in Italy, Finland and Sweden, ahead of elections next year to the European Parliament. The anti-establishment rhetoric of some of these groups could undermine the cohesion of European Union and derail agreements to cut greenhouse emissions and shift to the use of cleaner energy.
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