>> CATHY: A LAWSUIT FILED IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK TO KEEP DONALD TRUMP OFF THE 2024 BALLOT, INCREASING TALK OF BIDEN IMPEACHMENT, A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LOOMING, AND NEARLY 1/10TH OF THE NATION’S UNIONIZED AUTO WORKERS WENT ON STRIKE AT MIDNIGHT AT DETROIT’S BIG THREE AUTO MAKERS.
LOT OF NATIONAL POLITICS TO TALK ABOUT WITH OUR GROUP OF WILY PROFESSORS.
LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE U OF M’S HUMPHREY SCHOOL.
THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA IS ALSO THE TEACHING HOME OF MICHAEL MINTA.
AND JOINING US FROM DULUTH, CINDY RUGELEY HEADS UP THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT U.M.D.
PROFESSOR MINTA, I KNOW THAT YOU TAUGHT AT ANN ARBOR.
>> NO, WELL, I WENT TO SCHOOL THERE.
>> Cathy: SO YOU’RE KIND OF — YOU’RE NO STRANGER TO MICHIGAN AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY, RIGHT?
SO THE UAW STRIKE, IS THERE ANY POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM THIS AT ALL?
POTENTIALLY?
>> WELL, IT COULD BE IF IT DOESN’T GET RESOLVED QUICKLY.
BECAUSE UNIONS, IT SEEMS LIKE THIS IS THE SUMMER OF STRIKES EVERYWHERE, RIGHT?
IT’S HAPPENING IN CALIFORNIA.
IT’S HAPPENING WITH THE AUTO WORKERS.
AND SO IT’S REALLY THIS IDEA THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL AND BIDEN IS KIND OF PUTTING — HE’S HANGING HIS HAT ON THAT, LIKE THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL, BUT YOU HAVE ALL THESE WORKERS IN THESE DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES STRIKING AND UNIONS IS A ARE A BIG SUPPORTER OF THE — A BIG PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION.
SO I THINK DEMOCRATS ARE SILENTLY HOPING THAT THE UNIONS CAN SOLVE THIS AND THE CORPORATIONS CAN OLVE THIS SO THEY CAN GET THAT COALITION TOGETHER FOR 2024.
THE LONGER THIS DRAGS ON, IT’S REALLY GOING TO AFFECT THAT COALITION AND THAT ABILITY TO GET OUT THE VOTE.
>> Cathy: WHEN I ASKED ABOUT POLITICAL FALLOUT, YOU WERE NODDING YOUR HEAD.
>> YEAH, IDENTIFICATION THE BIG ISSUE FOR JOE BIDEN IS, THE ECONOMY IS IMPROVED, THERE’S GROWTH.
REAL WAGES ARE UP, EMPLOYMENT IS UP.
AND JOE BIDEN’S GETTING NO CREDIT FOR THAT.
AND THE QUESTION IS WHY?
AND CLEARLY INFLATION IS PART OF IT.
AND THE HOPE OF THE BIDEN PEOPLE IS, WITH INFLATION COMING DOWN, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BEGIN TO FEEL BETTER ABOUT HOW THINGS ARE.
BUT IF THE STRIKE GOES ON, IT WILL TAKE, YOU KNOW, STEAM OUT OF THE ECONOMY.
AND IT’S GOING TO BE A REAL PROBLEM FOR THE DEMOCRATS AND JUROR JOE BIDEN IF IT LASTS.
>> Eric: RONALD REAGAN DID SO WELL.
MCCOMB COUNTY, WITH THE DEMOCRATS, THAT THERE WERE A LOT OF AUTO WORKERS.
THAT’S A GROUP MAYBE LEADERSHIP FOR BIDEN, BUT THE RANK AND FILE IS UP FOR GRABS, I SUPPOSE, A LITTLE BIT ANYWAY.
>> YEAH, I MEAN, IF THIS ISN’T RESOLVED AND YOU’RE HAVING PEOPLE STILL STRIKING AND DISSATISFIED WITH THESE COMPANIES AND THE UNION NOT RESOLVING IT, I AM, IF THEY’RE STRIKING, THEY’RE NOT OUT KNOCKING ON DOORS, THEY’RE NOT HELPING THE DEMOCRATS.
AND SO THAT’S THE TYPE OF FALLOUT THAT YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE IF THIS SN’T RESOLVED QUICKLY.
>> Cathy: PROFESSOR UGELEY LET’S TALK ABOUT THIS LAWSUIT THAT WAS FILED IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK, INCLUDING FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE, JOAN GROWE TO KEEP FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP OFF THE ALLOT UNDER THE 14TH AMENDMENT.
INCLUDE EXPLAIN THAT?
>> YEAH, I AM IT’S ARTICLE III, OF THE 14TH AMENDMENT AND IT DEALS WITH — IT WAS PUT IN THERE AFTER THE THE CIVIL WAR.
AND IT PRETTY MUCH SAYS THAT IF YOU PARTICIPATED IN AN INSURRECTION, YOU CAN’T RUN FOR OFFICE.
YOU CAN’T HOLD THE PRESIDENCY.
ND AGAIN THIS WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS PUT IN AFTER THE CIVIL WAR TO DEAL WITH PEOPLE WANTING TO SEEK OFFICE WHO HAD SERVED IN THE SOUTH.
AND SO I THINK IT’S INTERESTING.
IT’S HERE.
I KNOW IT’S — I BELIEVE NEW HAMPSHIRE, I COULD BE WRONG, AND COLORADO, ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS.
AND SO IT’S GOING TO BE INTERESTING ON A COUPLE FRONTS.
ONE, WHAT EXACTLY IS AN INSURRECTION?
AND, TWO, WHAT COUNTS AS SOMEBODY PARTICIPATING IN IT?
AND SO, AGAIN, IT GOES INTO THIS, YOU KNOW, THIS CENTURY OLD PROVISION, AND SO IT’LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE.
IT’S GOING TO END UP AT HE SUPREME COURT.
>> Cathy: DOES THIS THING HAVE HEGS?
LEGS?
>> IT’S CERTAINLY GOING TO HAVE LEGS BECAUSE IT’S GOT SO MUCH ATTENTION TO IT.
BUT THIS IS UNCLEAR WHO’S GOING TO DECIDE THIS.
I MEAN, THERE’S ANOTHER, LIKE, A LAW IN PLACE OR DO E ASSUME THIS IS SELF-EXECUTING?
THAT’S, IT’S THERE, YOU KIND OF MAKE A REFERENCE TO, YOU KNOW, THE TITLE III, WHICH IS WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT.
AND THAT MAKES IT, YOU KNOW, EFFECTIVE.
I THINK THE KEY THING HERE IS, IT GOES TO THE U.S. SUPREME COURT EVENTUALLY.
MONTHS GO BY, PERHAPS.
AND THIS IS A COURT WITH SIX CONSERVATIVES ON IT.
AND IT’S JUST REALLY HARD TO IMAGINE A SITUATION WHERE THOSE SIX CONSERVATIVES ARE GOING TO TOSS DONALD TRUMP OFF THE BALLOT.
>> Cathy: DO YOU HAVE HAVE A COMMENT ABOUT THIS?
I’M GOING TO MAKE A SOMEWHAT CONTROVERSIAL, PROBABLY NOT THAT CONTROVERSIAL, REALLY, BUT I THINK THAT REPUBLICANS WOULD LOVE FOR THIS TO PPLY, SO TRUMP COULD BE REMOVED FROM THE BALLOT, DEMOCRATS SECRETLY ARE HOPING THAT HE SAYS OCTOBER SO I — I DON’T KNOW, LIKE LARRY SAID, THERE’S SO MUCH.
THE WAR AMENDMENT — THIS CLAUSE, THE 14TH AMENDMENT WAS PASSED DURING THE WAR.
IT’S ONE OF THESE, THE WAR AMENDMENTS, THAT REALLY WAS TALKING ABOUT CONFEDERATES THAT WERE REINING WINNING OFFICE IN CONGRESS WHO WERE REELECTED AND TRYING TO SERVE, AND THE REPUBLICANS AT THE TIME, TRYING TO DEMOCRATS WHO WERE AFFILIATED WITH THE CONFEDERATE PARTY OUT OF CONGRESS.
SO NOW, YOU KNOW, REALLY TRYING TO TRANSPOSE THIS TO THE 21ST CENTURY, LIKE LARRY SAID, THERE’S A LOT OF THINGS IN TERMS OF, IS IT SELF-EXECUTING?
IS THE PRESIDENT EVEN INVOLVED?
SO IT’S UNCLEAR IF THIS CLAUSE REALLY — AND I THINK BY THE TIME THE COURTS SETTLE IT, IF IT GETS TO THE COURTS, TERCHES BE TOOIT’LLBE TOO ATE.
SO I THINK IT’S REALLY UP TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TO DECIDE THE FINAL FATE OF DONALD TRUMP AND NOT SECRETARY OF STATES OF THESE BATTLE GROWNTD STATES.
>> Eric: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, WHAT ABOUT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SEPTEMBER 30TH OR LATER?
>> YOU KNOW, IT’S INTERESTING BECAUSE I THINK PEOPLE ARE TAKING T MORE SERIOUSLY THAN THEY HAVE IN RECENT YEARS WHEN THE SAME — OUR ANNUAL THREAT OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTTING DOWN.
I THINK THAT MCCARTHY’S GOING TO NEED THE DEMOCRATS.
THAT WHAT I THINK’S COMING ABOUT.
I THINK THIS TIME IT COULD QUITE WELL HAPPEN.
BUT IT’S INTERESTING POLITICALLY TO ME BECAUSE IT’S NOT A SITUATION WHERE THEY’RE SAYING THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT OR THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT WANTING TO DO WHAT THE OPPOSITE PARTY IN CONGRESS.
THIS TIME IT’S AN INTERNAL FIGHT BETWEEN THE REPUBLICANS.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
I MEAN, MCCARTHY, YOU KNOW, HE SEEMS TO BE HAVING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH KEEPING HIS PARTY ON IT.
IF THEY STICK WITH THE EAL THAT KEPT THE NATION FROM DEFAULTING, THEN PERHAPS THEY’LL GET THE DEMOCRATS ON BOARD.
BUT I THINK THIS ONE IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING BECAUSE IT’S NOT SO MUCH DEMOCRATS VERSUS REPUBLICANS AS IT IS RIGHT NOW REPUBLICANS VERSUS REPUBLICANS.
>> Eric: PROCESS UNDER WAY TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT BIDEN.
>> YEAH, WELL, THIS IS TIED UP WITH THE SHUTDOWN POSSIBILITY, WHICH IS MCCARTHY IS TRYING TO GIVE SOME KIND OF SOP TO THE HARD RIGHT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
THIS IS THE SOP.
BUT, YOU KNOW, ONCE YOU START AN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY, IT TAKES ON A LIFE OF ITS OWN.
IT’S NOT LIKE, OH, WE WENT OUT THERE, DIDN’T FIND ANYTHING, THEREFORE WE’RE NOT GOING TO DO TO IT.
REPUBLICANS MAY NOT WANT THIS.
IT DOESN’T APPEAR TO E EVIDENCE THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS INVOLVED IN HIS SON’S, YOU KNOW, WRONGDOING.
AND SO THEY’RE GOING TO SQUANDER A LOT OF TIME AND — ON REALLY A WILD GOOSE CHASE.
>> Cathy: HOW MUCH OF A WOUNDED SPEAKER IS SPEAKER MCCARTHY?
DIDN’T HE PULL BACK ON WHAT IS USUALLY HISTORICALLY BIPARTISAN MILITARY AID BILL?
>> YEAH, I DON’T — I MEAN, HE’S — HE MADE A LOT OF COMPROMISES TO GET THE SPEAKERSHIP, RIGHT?
AND NOW THE CONSERVATIVES ARE CALLING IN THEIR CHIPS.
HE TRIED TO OUTFLANK THEM BY SAYING, OKAY, I’M GOING TO CALL UNILATERALLY FOR THIS IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY.
BUT IT STILL HASN’T STOPPED THE CONSERVATIVES FROM SAYING HE’S WEAK AND EVEN THREATENING TO REMOVE HIM FROM THE SPEAKERSHIP.
BUT, YOU KNOW, SPEAKER MCCARTHY HAS THE SAME ISSUES THAT ALL LEADERS DO.
THERE ARE ABOUT 25 TO 30 CONGRESSIONAL HOUSE SEATS THAT THE MAJORITY PARTY HAS TO HOLD ONTO IN A VERY — I MEAN, VERY, VERY COMPETITIVE.
AND SO THIS IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY COULD FORCE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO ARE IN THESE SUPER COMPETITIVE STATES TO TAKE A VOTE THAT MAY CAUSE THE REPUBLICANS TO LOSE THEIR MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE.
AND SPEAKER MECHANIC CARTY DOESN’T WANT THAT.
>> Eric: ARE AGE OR TERM LIMITS COMING TO CONGRESS, PROFESSOR RUGELEY?
>> OH, I THINK THEY ALWAYS BRING IT UP.
BUT I DON’T — I MEAN, IDENTIFICATION THE SUPREME COURT, I MEAN, IT’S GOT A LOT OF STUDENT CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES THAT ARE INVOLVED WITH THAT TOO.
SO WILL IT COME UP?
IT MIGHT COME UP AGAIN IN THE HOUSE LIKE AS LARRY SAID AS SOP.
>> AARP.
IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
[ Laughter ] >> I DON’T THINK IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN EITHER.
IT’S A GOOD TALKING POINT.
WE’VE HAD NOT BEN HEARING
