How Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson’s switch to GOP could impact his political career

Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson’s switch to the Republican Party could give him an easier road for statewide office, though he’ll still have a bumpy ride appealing to the GOP’s most conservative voters.

Political observers say Johnson is positioning himself as a Republican candidate of the future, one that moves past the culture war issues enticing hard-right conservatives.

“Today, at this hour, if you want to be a statewide official in Texas, you have to be a Republican and a super conservative Republican,” said Vinny Minchillo, a Plano-based GOP consultant who has worked on the presidential campaigns of Utah Sen. Mitt Romney. “There is a group of people who realize that’s not a long-term winning strategy, that we are going to have to change because of demographics. That would pave the way for Johnson as a Republican candidate of the future.”

Johnson did not address his political plans beyond being mayor in announcing his move away from the Democratic Party. In The Wall Street Journal piece he wrote about the decision, he cited city issues related to fiscal conservatism.

“The future of America’s great urban centers depends on the willingness of the nation’s mayors to champion law and order and practice fiscal conservatism,” Johnson wrote. “Our cities desperately need the genuine commitment to these principles (as opposed to the inconsistent, poll-driven commitment of many Democrats) that has long been a defining characteristic of the GOP.”

He added that as mayor he would continue a three-pronged approach for Dallas, including making it the safest city in America with the best park system and the lowest taxes in North Texas.

Johnson said he would start voting Republican when his mayoral term ends in 2027. He has called being mayor a dream job and has not publicly mentioned running for another office.

The choice will have its most relevance when Johnson decides to run for higher office.

As it stands now, Johnson’s defection could create tougher political challenges, observers say.

“Viability for Democrats statewide is nonexistent,” said Republican political consultant Matthew Langston, whose clients identify as very conservative. “The problem for Eric Johnson is going to be his record. He’s got to make it out of a Republican primary. Who is he going to beat? Is it (Attorney General) Ken Paxton, (Lt. Gov. ) Dan Patrick or (Gov.) Greg Abbott? Obviously, welcome to the party, but I don’t know that his path has changed much for statewide viability.”

In switching parties, Johnson has irked Democrats, particularly in Dallas County, which has been a Democratic Party stronghold since 2006.

“If he wants to go and chase political money and political opportunities in the Republican primary, best of luck to him with his voting record when he was in the Legislature,” said Kendall Scudder, a progressive Democratic Party strategist who hosts the Pod Bless Texas podcast.

“Now he’s simply a man without a political home,” Scudder said. “Good luck getting Republicans to like you.”

Johnson’s reception by GOP primary voters will vary, said Dallas County Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Stoddard-Hajdu.

“Of course, there are going to be some Republicans that are going to say, ‘He’s just a Democrat,” she said. “The vast majority of Republicans welcome anyone who doesn’t feel like they have a home in the Democrat Party anymore to our side of the aisle.”

Parts of Johnson’s record are appealing to primary voters, she said.

“If he decides to run for higher office, he can show that he’s fiscally conservative,” she said. “He can show that he’s pro-business and that he’s fought for limits on tax appraisals.”

Johnson represented Dallas’ House District 100 in parts of southern, western and eastern Dallas for nine years before becoming mayor. He’s been mentioned as a possible congressional candidate, but political observers say he has loftier goals.

Options could emerge in 2026, when he could run for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn, or make a bid for a statewide executive post, including governor, lieutenant governor or attorney general.

Johnson’s record includes support for women’s reproductive rights. He also lined up with most Democrats on fighting COVID 19, including shutting down businesses during the early months of the pandemic and supporting mask mandates.

In running as a Republican candidate, Johnson will have to discuss culture war issues involving transgender Americans, immigration reform and abortion, and he’ll have to embrace or defend controversial party leaders like former President Donald Trump and Paxton, who was just acquitted by the Texas Senate on impeachment charges.

“He’ll have opportunities that he didn’t previously, but man it’s tough when you’re trying to make it out of a primary with his background,” Langston said.

Johnson’s party change does raise his profile. Most big city mayors are Democrats, so he becomes a symbol of the conservative call for new leadership in America’s urban areas.

“This is very bad news if you’re a Democrat, because you have somebody who was a rising star in the Democratic Party who didn’t see a future beyond mayorship or, perhaps, a congressional seat,” Minchillo said.

Leading Republicans are rolling out the welcome mats. On Friday, Johnson received praise from Abbott and others who say Republicans with conservative values are needed in urban centers.

“Mayor Johnson’s decision to switch parties highlights the stark contrast many Democrat-led cities face: out-of-control crime, reckless spending, and a radical leftist agenda,” Abbott said in a statement, adding that as mayor Johnson has funded Dallas police and “championed conservative economic policies.”

For many Democrats, though, it’s a disappointment.

“This has been the plan all along for them and him,” said Kardal Coleman, chairman of the Dallas County Democratic Party. “It’s no secret that the Republican Party has been courting Black men specifically, and Black voters. Johnson is just the latest to take the bait.”

Democrats could learn a lesson from Johnson’s departure, said Dallas Black Chamber Chairman Randall Bryant.

“The largest group of voters Republicans can go after right now in Texas is college-educated and business-minded Black men,” Bryant said. “Eric Johnson speaks that language being a lawyer and being pro-business. Democrats need to start talking about business policies within their platform or risk giving leverage for these types of things.”

Stoddard-Hadju said she’s happy to have Johnson as a Republican, adding it helps the party’s overall effort to win races in urban areas controlled by Democrats.

“We’re thrilled to add somebody like Mayor Johnson to our ranks,” she said. “Honestly, he’s been supported by Republicans for quite some time.”