♪♪ >> ERIC: WILL FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP BE ON THE BALLOT HERE IN MINNESOTA?
HOW DID BIDEN’S NORTHFIELD FARM VISIT GO?
AND WHY WAS THE CURRENT PRESIDENT IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK?
TIME TO CHECK IN WITH AN ESTEEMED DUO OF OUR POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.
DAVID SCHULTZ TEACHES POLITICS AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY AND IS ALSO AN ADJUNCT LAW PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.
AND WE WELCOME BACK STEVEN SCHIER, PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.
WELL, PROFESSOR SCHULTZ, 14TH AMENDMENT SECTION 3 PROHIBITS A PERSON FROM HOLDING OFFICE FOR, QUOTE, ENGAGING IN INSURRECTION OR REBELLION OR GIVING AID AND COMFORT TO THOSE WHO DID.
NOBODY’S CONVICTED PRESIDENT TRUMP ON HIS INSURRECTION CHARGE.
WHAT’S GOING ON HERE?
>> WHAT THEY’RE USING IS SOME PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO USE THIS INSURRECTION CLAUSE TO OBVIOUSLY EXCLUDE HIM FROM THE BALLOT.
ACTUALLY TO SAY, FIRST, THAT HE’S INELIGIBLE TO BECOME PRESIDENT AND, THEREFORE, CAN’T APPEAR ON THE BALLOT IN MINNESOTA IN 2024.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT’S UNLIKELY THAT THEY’RE GOING TO PREVAIL.
MY SORT OF GUESS IS LISTENING TO EVERYTHING CAME DOWN TO A STATEMENT BY CHIEF JUSTICE HUDSON, AT ONE POINT SHE SAID, EVEN IF LEGALLY WE CAN DO THIS, SHOULD WE DO THIS?
AND SHE TALKED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF SAYING, AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE SHOULD DEFER TO THE POLITICAL PROCESS TO MAKE A DECISION.
>> Eric: DON’T YOU THINK IT’S A LITTLE BANANA REPUBLICKISH — >> YES.
>> Eric: — TO BAN THE CHIEF OPPONENT OF THE SITTING PRESIDENT FROM RUNNING IN THE ELECTION?
>> WELL, I THINK CHIEF JUSTICE HUDSON SAID THERE WOULD BE CHAOS IF EACH STATE COULD MAKE THAT CALL.
>> YES.
>> IN SOME STATES TRUMP BE COULD BE ON THE BALLOT AND OTHER STATES HE COULDN’T AND THAT WOULD REALLY MAKE OUR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION A FARCE.
ULTIMATELY, YOU WOULD NEED A NATIONAL RULING ON THIS BY THE U.S. SUPREME COURT IF IT GETS THAT FAR.
THAT’S HOW IT WOULD BE CONCLUDED.
>> EXCEPT I DON’T THINK THE COURT WILL DO THAT.
>> RIGHT.
>> PARTLY BECAUSE, AGAIN, I THINK THE COURT HERE, MINNESOTA SUPREME COURT, IT WILL BE 5-0, THEY’LL DISMISS WITHOUT RENDERING A JUDGMENT.
THEY’LL JUST SAY, WE DON’T HAVE JURISDICTION TO HEAR THE CASE.
BUT THE BROADER POINT HERE IS THAT A QUARTER CENTURY AGO, A U.S. SUPREME COURT WAS HEAVILY CRITICIZED IN BUSH V. GORE, FOR WHAT ALLEGEDLY WAS DETERMINING WHO WOULD BE THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
I DON’T THINK THE COURT, SUPREME COURT, WANTS TO REALLY GET INVOLVED IN THIS.
AND EVEN IF IT GETS UP TO THERE, I THINK THEY’RE GOING TO FIND A VARIETY OF REASONS AND WAYS NOT TO HAVE TO RULE ON THIS.
>> WELL, YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS COURT HAS FACED A REAL POLITICAL BACKLASH ON ITS DOBBS ABORTION DECISION.
>> CORRECT.
>> AND I HINK IT DOESN’T WANT TO WADE INTO TROUBLESOME POLITICAL WATERS AGAIN.
>> YEAH.
I’M ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT A PRECEDENT ISSUE HERE, TOO.
IS THAT IF YOU START TO NOW LET ONE SIDE PUSH TRUMP OFF THE BALLOT, IS THERE GOING TO BE PRESSURE FOR SOMEBODY TO MAKE UP SOMETHING AND GO TO ANOTHER STATE AND SAY, BIDEN SHOULDN’T BE ABLE TO BE ON THE BALLOT FOR A ARIETY OF REASONS.
>> RIGHT.
>> WE’RE GETTING INTO A POLITICAL TVMENT IT FOR TAT, MUCH LIKE WE’VE TURNED UPPEACHMENT INTO A TIT FOR TAT.
>> Cathy: DOES IT ALSO MAKE A DIFFERENCE WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A STATE PRIMARY BALLOT?
>> AND THAT’S A QUESTION THAT THE MINNESOTA SUPREME COURT WAS TALKING ABOUT IS THAT THEY WERE ASKING, DOES IT TAKE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRIMARY VERSUS GENERAL ELECTION?
AND THEN THE OTHER THING IS, EVEN THOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE DONALD TRUMP MIGHT BE THE NOMINEE, BUT GUESS WHAT?
WE DON’T KNOW IF HE’S GOING TO APPEAR ON THE GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT.
AND THE COURT COULD SIMPLY SAY, IT IS JUST — TO USE A LEGAL TERM — THE CASE IS NOT RIPE AT THIS POINT.
WAIT UNTIL HE’S GOT THE NOMINATION, WAIT UNTIL WE KNOW.
BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, THINK ABOUT IT, HE’S FACING FOUR CRIMINAL SUITS, 91 INDICTMENTS, HE’S GOT TO GO THROUGH THE PRIMARY PROCESS.
POTENTIALLY HE MIGHT NOT GET THE NOMINATION.
>> RIGHT.
RIGHT.
>> Eric: WHY DON’T WE TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT GAZA AND ISRAEL AND OU TWO WOULD BE PERFECT FELLAS TO TALK ABOUT FREE SPEECH ON CAMPUS.
>> OH, BOY.
>> Eric: AND THE DEMOCRATS BEING A LITTLE BIT DIVIDED.
>> OH, VERY MUCH SO.
WELL, IT’S GENERATIONAL, YOU KNOW.
YOUNGER DEMOCRATS ARE MUCH MORE SYMPATHETIC TO THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE, WHICH MEANS THAT THEY HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION OF HAMAS IN THIS CONFLICT THAN A LOT OF OLDER DEMOCRATS DO.
AND THIS IS NOW BECOMING A POLITICAL PROBLEM FOR THE ADMINISTRATION.
MICHIGAN S A SWING STATE.
THERE’S A SIGNIFICANT MUSLIM POPULATION AND A MUSLIM MEMBER OF THE HOUSE, TLAIB FROM THE DETROIT AREA.
AND DEERBORN IS A HEAVILY MUSLIM COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN.
AND NOW YOU’RE SEEING THE WHITE HOUSE ARGUING FOR AN ISLAM PHOBIA INITIATIVE PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT THEIR ELECTORAL PROSPECTS IN MICHIGAN.
IT’S A DELICATE SITUATION IN TERMS OF DOMESTIC POLITICS FOR THIS ADMINISTRATION.
>> IT’S ALSO INTERESTING, I JUST GOT BACK FROM THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF TEACHING IN EUROPE, AND I’M NOW FACULTY AT THE LITHUANIAN MILITARY ACADEMY.
AND I MENTION THIS BECAUSE WHEN YOU TALK TO EUROPEANS, THEY VIEW THIS SSUE VERY VERY DIFFERENTLY.
THAT FOR THEM, THE CONCERN IS ABOUT WHAT ISRAEL IS DOING AND THE UNITED TATES SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL, A, IS DISTRACTING THE UNITED STATES FROM UKRAINE, AND, B, THEY’RE VERY MUCH CONCERNED ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE ISRAELI RESPONSE IS GOING TO PRODUCE A NEW GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS THAT’S FOR BIGGER PROBLEMS.
SO, IT’S JUST INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT THE DYNAMICS OF OUR DOMESTIC DIALOGUE VERSUS THE DIALOGUE THAT’S TAKING PLACE INTERNATIONALLY.
>> Cathy: THAT IS INTERESTING.
>> YEAH, YEAH.
>> Cathy: ANOTHER BIG STORY, OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENT WAS IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK.
COINCIDENCE OR NOT THAT HE WAS AT A FARM IN NORTHFIELD, MINNESOTA, WELL, ABOUT A WEEK BEFORE — AFTER DEAN PHILLIPS ANNOUNCED HE WAS RUNNING AGAINST BIDEN?
>> SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, WHICH IS THE MOST COMPETITIVE U.S. HOUSE RACE IN THE STATE.
SO THAT’S NOT COINCIDENTAL.
I THINK THIS WAS PROBABLY PLANNED BEFORE DEAN PHILLIPS.
I THINK THE PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO DEMONSTRATE HIS ABILITY O APPEAL TO A BROADER CONSTITUENCY THAN HE HAS IN THE PAST.
AND THAT WOULD BE THE RURAL CONSTITUENCY.
SEE, ANY RURAL VOTES BIDEN CAN GET IS A HUGE ADVANTAGE FOR HIM IN A LOT OF SWING STATES BECAUSE HE’S SO FAR EHIND TRUMP AMONGST RURAL VOTERS.
SO MAKING A STOP LIKE THIS IS A PLAY FOR THAT.
AND ALSO TRYING TO HELP POTENTIALLY ENDANGERED INCUMBENT ANGIE CRAIG IN THE SECOND DISTRICT.
>> Eric: NOW, DEAN PHILLS I ALSO GOT A LITTLE — PHILLIPS GOT A LITTLE BACKLASH AT A Q&A TOWN FORUM WHERE HE KIND OF FUMBLED THE QUESTION OF A POTENTIAL CEASE-FIRE.
>> YEAH.
I MEAN, HIS CAMPAIGN IS PROBABLY NOT OFF TO THE BEST START IN THE WORLD OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.
PARTLY YOU HAVE THE PROBLEM OF PEOPLE ARE, LIKE, DEAN WHO OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
>> RIGHT.
>> BUT, REMEMBER, HIS EXPERTISE IS NOT FOREIGN POLICY.
RIGHT OFF THE BAT.
AND IT’S PROBABLY THE WEAKEST AREA HE IS, AND HE’S BEING PROBED ON A REALLY TOUGH ISSUE, AGAIN, FOR DEMOCRATS.
BUT THE OTHER THING TO THINK ABOUT HERE, IF YOU LISTEN TO THE CIRCLES WITHIN MINNESOTA, AT ONE POINT, DEAN PHILLIPS WAS VIEWED AS POTENTIALLY SOMEBODY WITH STATEWIDE OFFICE IN MINNESOTA, HE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED HIMSELF, AS I TALK TO PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, WITHIN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA AT THIS POINT.
AND HE’S CERTAINLY NOT HELPING HIMSELF NATIONALLY BY CHALLENGING BIDEN.
EVEN THOUGH A GOOD ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE, IS THAT BIDEN PROBABLY NEEDS A CHALLENGE TO PROVE THAT HE’S UP TO RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT.
>> RIGHT, NO, WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT A MINNESOTAN IN 1968, SENATOR EUGENE McCARTHY, GOT 42% OF THE VOTE.
>> YES.
>> AND LYNDON JOHNSON GOT 48% AND THREE WEEKS LATER HE DROPPED OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AS AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT.
COULD IT HAPPEN AGAIN?
POSSIBLY.
I ALSO THINK, YOU CAN EXPECT THAT DEAN PHILLIPS WILL HAVE A ROUGH START.
THE QUESTION IS, HOW’S HE DOING IN FEBRUARY?
>> RIGHT.
>> AND IF YOU START LOW, THERE’S ONLY ONE WAY TO GO.
AND THAT’S UP.
>> Cathy: YOU KNOW, I WAS TALKING TO HIM EARLIER THIS WEEK, AND HE WAS, I ASKED HIM ABOUT THE CRITICISM HE’S BEEN GETTING FROM OTHER DFLers.
>> RIGHT.
>> Cathy: SOME PRETTY HARSH CRITICISM, YOU KNOW.
>> YES.
>> Cathy: THAT’S JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE POLITICAL MACHINE TRYING TO PROTECT ITS OWN, IN THAT THEY’RE TRYING TO SUPPRESS HIM.
DO VOTERS LOOK AT THIS AND SAY, YES, NO, OR MAYBE SO TO THIS?
>> I THINK ONLY THE HARD-CORE DEMOCRATS REALLY CARE ABOUT THIS.
THIS IS LIKE INSIDE BASEBALL.
BUT WHEN IT GETS DOWN TO THE ISSUE OF PERHAPS, IF WE WERE JUST A PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS SYSTEM, I THINK IT WOULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM HERE.
WITH A PRIMARY, IT’S PROBABLY GOING TO AFFECT SOME OF THE VOTERS, BUT — >> KEEP IN MIND THAT BIDEN WAS VERY WEAK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN 2020.
>> YEAH.
>> HE FINISHED FIFTH.
HE GOT 8% OF THE VOTE.
>> YEAH.
>> RIGHT NOW HE’S RUNNING IN A CROWDED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD IN THE POLLS AT 29% AMONGST DEMOCRATS.
>> YEAH.
>> NOT GOOD.
>> MY COMMENT WAS ABOUT MINNESOTA, NOT ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE, BY THE WAY.
>> Eric: NEW HAMPSHIRE DOESN’T MATTER, THERE ARE NO DELEGATES, THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE MAD AT BIDEN, MAD AT THE DEMOCRATS.
IF THEY WANT TO SEND A MESSAGE, THERE IS DEAN PHILLIPS.
>> RIGHT.
AND THE MEDIA WILL MAKE IT A BIG EVENT.
>> OF COURSE.
>> REGARDLESS OF THE DELEGATE COUNT.
I WAS A BIG EVENT — IOWA IS A BIG EVENT, THE DELEGATE COUNT THERE IS TINY COMPARED TO HE OVERALL NOMINATION.
SAME DYNAMIC WILL WORK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
>> YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT, YOU JUST HAVE TO BE HE FIRST.
>> Eric: EVEN THOUGH IT HAS FEW ELECTORAL VOTES, THEY’LL BE IMPORTANT IN NOVEMBER, NEW HAMPSHIRE.
>> THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST.
YEAH.
>> Cathy: ANYTHING YOU WANT TO ADD ABOUT THE NEW HOUSE SPEAKER, THAT YOU’VE SEEN?
>> HE’S A LOW-KEY FELLOW.
HE’S TRYING SOME ADVENTUROUS CONSERVATIVE APPROACHES TO SPENDING POLICY IN CURRENT AGENDA ITEMS.
IT’S UNCLEAR IF HE CAN NEGOTIATE SUCCESSFULLY WITH OTHER CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS.
SHUTDOWN ON THE 17th?
>> YEAH.
CLOSE.
>> YEAH.
>> CLOSE.
>> Cathy: I LIKE THAT, YEAH, CLOSE.
