Boris Johnson joked about Treasury being the ‘pro death squad’ during pandemic, Covid inquiry told – UK politics live | Politics

This morning the Daily Express splashed on comments from Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, welcoming a report from the rightwing Institute of Economic Affairs thinktank about Brexit. Badenoch says the report shows that “contrary to some media reports and many pre-Brexit establishment voices, the data says Brexit has not had a major impact on UK–EU trade” (although the Express splash goes further, claiming the report shows Brexit has “boosted UK trade”).

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EXPRESS: Brexit trade freedom ‘boost’ for UK economy #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/kZ2MQDaOZk

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) November 5, 2023

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Experts have dismissed the findings, and particularly the way they were written up in an IEA press release quoting figures purportedly showing EU trade up since 2019 – but only because the numbers in the relevant chart have not been adjusted to take into account the impact of inflation.

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(The actual report says Brexit has “not had a major detrimental effect on UK–EU trade”. The IEA press release is headlined “Brexit leaves UK trade unscathed”.)

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These are from Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London.

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Let's (briefly) take seriously new @iealondon report claiming Brexit hasn't damaged UK trade. What's the argument?

Press release said this. But these figures are in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms! pic.twitter.com/Pdv8BPBV5x

— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) November 6, 2023

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Here are the inflation-adjusted figures, goods exports have fallen significantly.

IEA argument isn't that our goods exports have done well since Brexit – even they can't claim that – it's that exports outside the EU fell even more than those to the EU. So it's not Brexit! pic.twitter.com/VoaL3XxAtl

— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) November 6, 2023

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Now, TBC, it's not a crazy argument! But it's neither new nor conclusive. Indeed, I discussed both the data and the explanations here several months ago!https://t.co/dNNPmwOLyJ pic.twitter.com/7WYKC1g1wX

— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) November 6, 2023

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I concluded then – and the vast majority of credible trade economists agree

"So while it’s reasonable to conclude that Brexit has damaged the UK’s trade performance, both the magnitude and the mechanisms remain open to question."

Nothing in the @iea paper changes that [END]

— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) November 6, 2023

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This is from David Henig, a trade expert and the UK director at the European Centre For International Political Economy thinktank.

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This should be a humiliation for a Secretary of State of Trade, to be associated with such shoddy research attempting to deny economic reality. That's what happens when ideology is more important than actual businesses. https://t.co/5lEC1gaJBT pic.twitter.com/MLkuKtzTcP

— David Henig 🇺🇦 (@DavidHenigUK) November 6, 2023

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And these are from Anton Spisak, the Brexit expert at the Tony Blair Institute thinktank.

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The IEA’s new report claims that there isn’t a “discernible Brexit effect” on the British economy.

Here’s my analysis, which shows inflation-adjusted GDP growth per person since 2016, with the UK at the bottom of G7. https://t.co/DOKRizB1Vb pic.twitter.com/KHYbhfUqcq

— Anton Spisak (@AntonSpisak) November 6, 2023

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Here are the inflation-adjusted trade data. To claim that Brexit hasn’t had an effect on trade would be to dismiss a) the short-term hit to exports to the EU; b) the more persistent hit to imports from the EU; and c) the overall picture of slow post-Covid recovery in UK trade. pic.twitter.com/oNwU0XOUmB

— Anton Spisak (@AntonSpisak) November 6, 2023

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Catherine McBride, author of the report, says she is not to blame for the way the IEA wrote up her findings in its press release.

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I don't do the press releases. I wrote the paper. I suggest you read it before commenting.

I didn't realise you would take such a strong stance against a paper with only a tiny snippet of knowledge.

— Catherine McBride (@CeeMacBee) November 6, 2023

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At the Covid inquiry Stuart Glassborow, deputy principal private secretary to Boris Johnson during coronavirus, has been giving evidence.

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Dermot Keating, counsel for the inquiry, was asking the questions, and he has just asked Glassborow about an entry in Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary in which Vallance, the chief scientific adviser at the time, records Boris Johnson as referring to the Treasury as the “pro death squad”. Johnson reportedly used the phrase in January 2021, when he wanted the Treasury to back him in arguing for an early lifting of lockdown measures.

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Johnson was referring to the Treasury being in favour of prioritising the economy in internal debates on lockdown policy.

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Glassborow told the inquiry he did not recall that phrase being used.

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UPDATE: Reading from Vallance’s diary, Keating said:

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There is an entry … at meeting on 25 January 2021 the PM is recorded saying he wants tier 3 March 1, tier 2 April 1 Tier 1 May 1 and nothing by September, and he ends it by saying the team must bring in the pro-death squad from HMT. Do you recall the phraseology by the prime minister referring to HMT as the pro-death squad?

\n

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Glassborow replied:

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As I say, this I think refers to a meeting from a couple of years ago. I dont recall that specific phrase. I see that this is from Patrick’s notebook. I wouldn’t dispute what he’s recorded, but I don’t recall the phrase at all.

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Police have arrested dozens of Just Stop Oil protesters near Downing Street after activists lay down on the road and lined up on pavements along Whitehall.

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The action took place around the same time as two Just Stop Oil activists were arrested for criminal damage after the glass on the Rokeby Venus painting in the National Gallery was shattered by a man and a woman.

The painting was originally slashed by suffragettes in 1914. One of those involved on Monday said: “Women did not get the vote by voting; it is time for deeds not words.”

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💥 SUFFRAGETTE PAINTING SMASHED

💀 Our government have revealed plans for MORE oil licences, knowing it will kill millions. In response, two supporters of Just Stop Oil smashed the Rokeby Venus — slashed by Mary Richardson in 1914.

⏱ Deeds, not words: https://t.co/3tlBID7nKA pic.twitter.com/Hk0el26QIt

— Just Stop Oil (@JustStop_Oil) November 6, 2023

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The Metropolitan police said officers had arrested at least 40 activists who were “slow marching” and that Whitehall was clear after a brief period of traffic being stopped.

The prelude to the arrests on Whitehall was witnessed by the Conservative peer David Frost, who posted this on X.

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Whitehall just now. The @metpoliceuk are accompanying a Just Stop Oil demo down the street. I hope they plan to take some firmer action soon.

— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) November 6, 2023

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least 40 Just Stop Oil protesters arrested after disruption in Whitehall”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Ben Quinn”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2019/11/14/Ben_Quinn.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d7db834a96f161acdbfd6547d3606faa”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2019/11/14/Ben_Quinn.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=297a1d09bee05d7004e7a46737ffc547″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 6 Nov 2023 08.45 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 6 Nov 2023 04.25 EST”},{“id”:”6548da528f08293ffae540f5″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

At the Downing Street lobby briefing No 10 was unable to defend Suella Braverman’s claim that rough sleeping is a “lifestyle choice”.

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Asked if the government had any evidence to back up this claim, the PM’s spokesperson replied:

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The reasons are complex, I think mental health and addiction are drivers of homelessness.

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Asked if the prime minister ever gets tired of having to defend Braverman, the spokesperson said:

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The prime minister continues to work closely with the home secretary, not least on this issue of protests … and of course on small boats.

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The spokesperson also declined to say Rishi Sunak agreed with Braverman’s description of the pro-Palestinian demonstrations as “hate marches”.

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This is from David Wilcock from Mail Online.

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No10 not offering a lot of love for Suella Braverman today. Won’t back claims that homelessness is ‘lifestyle choice’ and pro-Palestinian demos are ‘hate marches’. ‘The PM continues to work closely with the Home Sec’, says spox when asked if Sunak is tired of defending her.

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NEW: No10 not offering a lot of love for Suella Braverman today. Won't back claims that homelessness is 'lifestyle choice' and pro-Palestinian demos are 'hate marches'. 'The PM continues to work closely with the Home Sec', says spox when asked if Sunak is tired of defending her.

— David Wilcock (@DavidTWilcock) November 6, 2023

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Suella Braverman, the home secretary, is holding a meeting today to discuss the proposal for a pro-Palestinian march to go ahead on Armistice Day on Saturday, Rishi Sunak said.

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Ministers seem to be actively encouraging the police to initiate the process that would lead to the march being banned. (The Home Office has the final say, but it can only approve a ban if the police ask for one.) Last week the Metropolitian police pointed out that no demonstration is planned for Remembrance Sunday and that the organisers of the march planned for Saturday, Armistice Day, will avoid the area near the Cenotaph where commemorations will take place.

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Sunak said:

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Remembrance Day is a time for national reflection. It is a time when I know the whole country will come together to pay tribute to those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice to keep us safe. I want to make sure police have our absolute and total backing to clamp down on any acts of criminality, but also to ensure public order.

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The Metropolitan police have said they will use “all powers and tactics” at their disposal to prevent disruption, including section 13 of the Public Order Act 1986, which allows the banning of a procession when there is a risk of serious disorder. The Met commander Karen Findlay said:

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We fully appreciate the national significance of Armistice Day. Thousands of officers will be deployed in an extensive security operation and we will use all powers and tactics at our disposal to ensure that anyone intent on disrupting it will not succeed.

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Clare Lombardelli, chief economic adviser to the Treasury during coronavirus, told the Covid inquiry that the department did not have an estimate for the cost of lockdown. She said:

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I wouldn’t say there was no meaningful modelling. There was a lot of analysis and modelling that happened.

\n

What I would say is there was no estimated cost of a lockdown, if you like. There was no way to basically say a lockdown will cost you X, or indeed a lockdown of this form will cost you X but of a different form will cost you Y …

\n

I think it’s a bit too far to say there was no meaningful modelling done, there was a lot of useful modelling … But there wasn’t was an estimate of, the lockdown will cost X in terms of jobs or economic activity.

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More than 100 British nationals have now been able to leave Gaza, Rishi Sunak said this morning. In his pooled TV interview he said:

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We have been very clear and consistent that we support humanitarian pauses, which are there specifically to allow aid to get into Gaza and hostages and foreign nationals to come out. I’m pleased that over 100 British nationals have now been able to leave Gaza thanks to our diplomatic engagement. I spoke to both the Egyptian president and the Israeli prime minister about this specific issue last week.

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Rishi Sunak has not accepted that Suella Braverman’s description of rough sleeping as a “lifestyle choice” was offensive – although he declined to use her language himself.

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Asked this morning if the term was offensive, Sunak told broadcasters in a pooled interview:

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I don’t want anyone to sleep rough on our streets.

\n

That’s why the government is investing £2bn over the next few years to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping. I’m pleased that the number of people sleeping rough is down by a third since the peak, but of course there is more to do.

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Our Homelessness Reduction Act, which is a landmark law that we passed, has already ensured that over 600,000 people have had their homelessness prevented or relieved. So I’m proud of that record.

\n

But of course there is more to do and we’ll keep going so that nobody has to sleep rough on our streets.

\n

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Treasury officials strongly advised Rishi Sunak to resist calls for a short, “circuit breaker” lockdown in the autumn of 2020, the Covid inquiry was told.

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Clare Lombardelli, chief economic adviser at the Treasury, is giving evidence to the inquiry this morning and she has just been asked about this memo to Sunak urging him to “push back strongly on the circuit breaker proposal” on the grounds that its economic impact might be severe, and that it might last longer than the two or three weeks envisaged.

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Lombardelli said it was the job of the Treasury to consider the economic aspects of this proposal. She said other departments would have been looking at issues like the health case for the policy, or the impact on schools.

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was urged by Treasury to ‘strongly’ resist calls for circuit breaker lockdown in autumn 2020, Covid inquiry hears”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 6 Nov 2023 08.45 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 6 Nov 2023 04.25 EST”},{“id”:”6548bea58f08293ffae53f6f”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

In his Today programme interview Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, was also asked about calls for the pro-Palestinian march planned for London on Saturday to be banned on the grounds that it will coincide with Armistice Day.

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Hall said it would be for the police to decide if the march posed a risk. If they thought the risk was unacceptable, they should ask the Home Office office to agree to a banning order, he said.

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He went on:

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I think this is a difficult issue. I see no evidence that the organisers of the march are trying to target Remembrance Day, or the weekend, and my instinct, I think, must be that you should always err in favour of freedom of expression.

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Hall said he also accepted there might be concerns about a terrorist threat. He went on:

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So, if the march is going to go ahead, one would hope it’s going to be fairly well controlled, whether that’s by making a really strong break in terms of time [between events at the Cenotaph at 11am and the march] and starting it much later, perhaps, than was intended, and making sure that it’s perhaps better policed than earlier ones. So by all means, go ahead. But I can see the possibilities of disorder from a terrorist perspective.

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In the Observer yesterday Jon Ungoed-Thomas and Mark Townsend reported that the government is drawing up plans “to broaden the definition of extremism to include anyone who ‘undermines’ the country’s institutions and its values”.

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On the Today programme this morning Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, was asked if he thought the government would be able to legislate for such a broad definition of extremism. He replied:

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Assuming what is reported in the Observer is correct, I think the answer is no.

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I don’t want to sneer, by the way, because there it’s legitimate to try and work out what might try and lead to terrorism conversation in the future.

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But … from what’s reported, it’s insanely broad, it couldn’t possibly lead to an offence.

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Asked about a proposal, backed in the past by Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan police, for a new offence of “hateful extremism” to be created, Hall said:

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I think is impossible to craft an offence. You end up just capturing far too much behaviour that you don’t want to make a crime.

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Claire Coutinho has admitted that the government’s plan to require annual oil and gas licensing in the North Sea would not necessarily keep bills down for British consumers.

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The energy security and net zero secretary told BBC Breakfast:

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\n

It wouldn’t necessarily bring energy bills down, that’s not what we’re saying, but it would raise a significant amount of money that would help us, for example, fund public services, also fund transition into different forms of energy, for example, things like offshore wind and solar energy which more broadly and indirectly could help bring bills down.

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In its news release announcing the proposed legislation the government does not claim that annual licensing on its own would bring down energy prices. But it does imply that, combined with other policies, it would. It says:

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We are reducing our vulnerability to imports from hostile states, leaving us less exposed to unpredictable international forces. This will ensure we have a more secure and diverse energy system and as we make progress on renewables and new nuclear, our more robust energy mix will help to lower household bills in the long term.

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Good morning. Legislating is at the heart of what government is all about, and tomorrow, in the king’s speech, Rishi Sunak and his team will set out their programme for what is almost certainly the final full session of parliament before the general election. But already there are signs that some of what’s in it is motivated not so much by governing priorities, but party politics. Sunak is looking for “wedge issues” where he can force Keir Starmer to oppose measures that might be popular with potential Labour voters. All governments do this a bit, although getting the monarch to participate might be considered bad form.

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The best example is the announcement overnight that the king’s speech will require the North Sea Transition Authority to issue licences for oil and gas exploration every year. The NSTA can and does already hold regular licensing rounds anyway, but Sunak wants to set a trap for Labour, which says it will not issue new licences if it wins the election. Pippa Crerar has the story here. And these are from Ed Miliband, the shadow secretary for climate change and net zero.

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This proposed Bill does nothing to lower energy bills, does nothing to deliver energy security and is a sign of a government that is bankrupt of any ideas.

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This proposed Bill does nothing to lower energy bills, does nothing to deliver energy security and is a sign of a government that is bankrupt of any ideas.https://t.co/sGMgKF9T1I

— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) November 6, 2023

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We already have regular North Sea oil and gas licensing in Britain and it is precisely our dependence on fossil fuels that has led to the worst cost of living crisis in generations.

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We already have regular North Sea oil and gas licensing in Britain and it is precisely our dependence on fossil fuels that has led to the worst cost of living crisis in generations.

— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) November 6, 2023

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All this embarrassing stunt tells you is that Rishi Sunak is continuing with his retreat from net zero.

No wonder we see consternation from so many leading businesses, and even figures in his own party, who know he is undermining our energy security and damaging our economy.

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All this embarrassing stunt tells you is that Rishi Sunak is continuing with his retreat from net zero.

No wonder we see consternation from so many leading businesses, and even figures in his own party, who know he is undermining our energy security and damaging our economy.

— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) November 6, 2023

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At the weekend the Financial Times reported on another king’s speech proposal that would be overtly partisan when it said that Suella Braverman, the home secretary, wanted to include a proposal to stop charities distributing tents to homeless people in cities. Braverman then confirmed the story on X, and added to the provocation by describing homelessness as a “lifestyle choice”.

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This time she may taken “wedge politics” a bit too far. Wedge issues work by opening up a split (‘driving a wedge’) between your opponents’ leadership and their supporter base. But Braverman may have put the wedge in the wrong place, because she has horrified some Tories.

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At the weekend Bob Blackman, the Conservative MP who heads the all-party parliamentary group for ending homelessness, said Braverman should use “wiser words”. Last night Steve Brine, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons health committee, went further, telling Radio 4’s Westminster Hour:

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I utterly resist the line that sleeping rough is a lifestyle choice. I just think it was clumsy and it was crass.

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And this morning Claire Coutinho, the energy security and net zero secretary, who was doing a media round to talk about oil and gas licensing, refused to back Braverman’s language. Asked if she agreed homelessness was a lifestyle choice, Coutinho replied:

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I wouldn’t have used necessarily those words, but in my experience what you have is people often with very complex needs and sometimes they might refuse accommodation, and that’s often because they’ve got complicated problems in their lives – like I said, it might be addiction, it might be mental health issues.

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Here is the agenda for the day.

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10.30am: Clare Lombardelli, the former chief economic adviser to the Treasury, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry. Later in the morning Stuart Glassborow, deputy principal private secretary to Boris Johnson when he was PM, gives evidence.

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Morning: Rishi Sunak is on a visit in Norfolk. He is due to record a clip for the media.

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11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

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2pm: Ben Warner, a data specialist who worked closely with Dominic Cummings and who worked as a No 10 adviser during the pandemic, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry.

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If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.

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Key events

At least 40 Just Stop Oil protesters arrested after disruption in Whitehall

Ben Quinn

Police have arrested dozens of Just Stop Oil protesters near Downing Street after activists lay down on the road and lined up on pavements along Whitehall.

The action took place around the same time as two Just Stop Oil activists were arrested for criminal damage after the glass on the Rokeby Venus painting in the National Gallery was shattered by a man and a woman.

The painting was originally slashed by suffragettes in 1914. One of those involved on Monday said: “Women did not get the vote by voting; it is time for deeds not words.”

💥 SUFFRAGETTE PAINTING SMASHED

💀 Our government have revealed plans for MORE oil licences, knowing it will kill millions. In response, two supporters of Just Stop Oil smashed the Rokeby Venus — slashed by Mary Richardson in 1914.

⏱ Deeds, not words: https://t.co/3tlBID7nKA pic.twitter.com/Hk0el26QIt

— Just Stop Oil (@JustStop_Oil) November 6, 2023

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💥 SUFFRAGETTE PAINTING SMASHED

💀 Our government have revealed plans for MORE oil licences, knowing it will kill millions. In response, two supporters of Just Stop Oil smashed the Rokeby Venus — slashed by Mary Richardson in 1914.

⏱ Deeds, not words: https://t.co/3tlBID7nKA pic.twitter.com/Hk0el26QIt

— Just Stop Oil (@JustStop_Oil) November 6, 2023

The Metropolitan police said officers had arrested at least 40 activists who were “slow marching” and that Whitehall was clear after a brief period of traffic being stopped.

The prelude to the arrests on Whitehall was witnessed by the Conservative peer David Frost, who posted this on X.

Whitehall just now. The @metpoliceuk are accompanying a Just Stop Oil demo down the street. I hope they plan to take some firmer action soon.

— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) November 6, 2023

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Whitehall just now. The @metpoliceuk are accompanying a Just Stop Oil demo down the street. I hope they plan to take some firmer action soon.

— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) November 6, 2023

Treasury did not have estimate for economic impact of lockdown, Covid inquiry hears

Clare Lombardelli, chief economic adviser to the Treasury during coronavirus, told the Covid inquiry that the department did not have an estimate for the cost of lockdown. She said:

I wouldn’t say there was no meaningful modelling. There was a lot of analysis and modelling that happened.

What I would say is there was no estimated cost of a lockdown, if you like. There was no way to basically say a lockdown will cost you X, or indeed a lockdown of this form will cost you X but of a different form will cost you Y …

I think it’s a bit too far to say there was no meaningful modelling done, there was a lot of useful modelling … But there wasn’t was an estimate of, the lockdown will cost X in terms of jobs or economic activity.