ORLANDO — It’s a one-game season, UCF coach Gus Malzahn said during Monday’s press conference, as the Knights look to reach an eighth straight bowl game Saturday.
UCF (5-6, 2-6) hosts fellow Big 12 newcomer Houston (4-7, 2-6) for a noon kickoff, preceded by senior day festivities. A number of impact starters — including quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, linebacker Jason Johnson, interior offensive lineman Lokahi Pauole, offensive tackle Tylan Grable and tight end Alec Holler — will be honored before what could be their final appearance for the Knights.
“The focus is being able to put another tough loss behind us. We’ve done that this year, and we’ve had quite a few of them,” Malzahn said. “These guys have rebounded every time. Just by their attention in our meetings (Sunday), I am confident that they will do that.
UCF’s last game:Knights miss late tying PAT, chance for bowl eligibility in loss to Texas Tech
“Playing for these seniors, playing for a chance to go to a bowl, last home game, they’ll be motivated.”
Houston enters with four losses in its last five games, and a 3-7 all-time record against UCF dating back to their shared time in both Conference USA and the American Athletic Conference. Saturday will mark the first head-to-head showdown for head coaches Gus Malzahn and Dana Holgorsen, who have combined for 192 career victories.
UCF technically could still earn a bowl invitation with a loss. Should there not be enough six-win teams to fill the 82 bowl slots, five-win teams would be organized by Academic Progress Rate and invited accordingly.
The Knights intend, however, to punch their ticket based on merit. Here are three things to watch this weekend as longtime conference foes renew acquaintances.
UCF, Houston making habit of one-possession thrillers
UCF dropped to 2-3 in one-score games last weekend with its 24-23 defeat to Texas Tech, a game ultimately decided by a blocked PAT and an inability to slow down running back Tahj Brooks in crunch time.
There were earlier missed opportunities, though. UCF came away empty twice in the red zone, including an egregious goose egg before halftime when it ran out of time after being stopped two yards short on a shovel pass with 12 seconds on the clock. Colton Boomer struck the right upright on a 32-yard field goal attempt, and Plumlee lofted a costly interception near the end of the third quarter.
Earlier this fall, the Knights won via walkoff field goal at Boise State and by defending a late, game-tying two-point conversion against Cincinnati. In the other two close losses, they surrendered a 28-point lead at home to Baylor and failed going for two at Oklahoma.
Houston has endured its fair share of nailbiters as well this season. The Cougars fended off an upset bid from UTSA, lost to Rice in double overtime, prevailed against West Virginia with a Hail Mary, fell to Texas after climbing out of a 21-0 hole and upended Baylor on Donovan Smith’s decisive two-point conversion in OT.
Most recently, though, Houston squandered a 23-9 second-quarter lead in a 43-30 defeat to Oklahoma State.
Donovan Smith, Samuel Brown among Houston’s weapons
Houston ranks 12th among the Big 12’s 14 teams in scoring, at 24.6 points per game (21.9 in eight conference games), but it has a handful of weapons that could potentially trouble UCF’s defense.
Dual-threat quarterback Donovan Smith is completing 64.7% of his passes and averaging 240 passing yards and 36.7 rushing yards per game. Smith has 21 touchdown tosses to his credit, but 12 interceptions as well.
“He can make plays with his feet. Big guy,” Malzahn said of Smith, a 6-foot-5, 241-pound junior who transferred from Texas Tech. “They throw it and they’ll have a lot of called quarterback runs, I feel like. At the same time, they like to push the ball down the field. I think he’s a very solid quarterback.”
Samuel Brown has filled the void left behind by Daytona Beach native Tank Dell as the Cougars’ most trusted receiving target. He leads the team with 62 receptions and 815 receiving yards, adding three touchdowns.
Up front, Patrick Paul is one of the Big 12’s premier pass protectors. Per Pro Football Focus, Paul has a 94.2 pass blocking grade across 467 snaps, including an 89.9 mark in true pass set pass blocking.
John Rhys Plumlee could attack vulnerable Houston secondary
UCF will always look to establish the run early, and it’s typically a sound strategy given the exploits of RJ Harvey this season — 1,160 yards (No. 10 in FBS), 6.11 YPC (No. 22) and 14 touchdowns (tied for No. 7).
However, Houston has struggled to defend the pass all year, giving Plumlee — on paper, at least — an opportunity to close his UCF career with a monster passing day. He totaled 573 yards through the air in his last two home starts with six touchdowns, albeit with five turnovers as well (three interceptions, two lost fumbles).
“Since I’ve been back, I have had confidence in my ability being out there,” said Plumlee, whose weekly rushing totals have increased in each of the last three games as well. “It’s understanding that I’m not all the way at 100% running speed, not all the way where I want to be with my legs, but enough to elude, get away, protect myself, to extend plays.
“Every week has been just a little bit better than the last.”
Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson rank Nos. 1 and 4, respectively, in the Big 12 for receiving yards. Baker needs 93 to surpass 1,000 for the season, while Hudson leads the team with seven touchdown catches.
UCF’s offensive line also turned in its second-best pass protection performance of the season, per PFF, against Texas Tech. Neither right tackle Amari Kight nor center Lokahi Pauole allowed a pressure on 37 pass blocking snaps.
Houston allows 255.5 passing yards per game (114th in FBS) with an efficiency rating of 146.81 (108th). Per PFF, the Cougars’ 65.2 coverage grade is 117th in the nation.
Isaiah Hamilton and Malik Fleming have combined for seven of the team’s nine picks, but the cornerback-safety tandem has also been targeted for 10 of the 20 opposing touchdown passes.
