Finance expert says Bayern Munich can only “benefit” from Harry Kane deal if it wins Champions League

Will the move for Harry Kane prove worthwhile?

• By
  
  CSmith1919
  
• on August 20, 2023 6:00 pm

When Bayern Munich took its big swing for Harry Kane a lot was at play.

The team now seems equipped to compete for a Champions League title, which should prove that the sporting aspect of the move was success. Prior to Kane’s acquisition, Bayern Munich was lacking a world class striker to lead its attack.

Problem solved.

Financial, however, it might prove harder for the Bavarians to be successful on this deal per financial expert Rob Wilson, a professor of economics at Sheffield Business School Grosvenor Sport.

Wilson spoke to Grosvenor Sport and detailed how recouping that €100 million+ transfer fee could prove very difficult. Wilson also detailed why things were far from smooth during negotiations and how things landed the way they did for all parties involved.

“It was clear Daniel Levy was not going to sell to a domestic rival, but the reality was his transfer fee and wages were huge for anyone to pay because you get these diminishing returns whereby he’s going to have a much lower sell-on value if indeed they do go on to sell him. Plus a huge amount of cost going into your FFP structure,” Wilson said. “Commercially, it’s a big move for a British player to go into the Bundesliga. Bayern are one of the European heavyweights, so you would imagine his European profile lifts the profile of Bayern with the exposure of an international captain moving abroad. But he doesn’t really have the profile of those Galactico superstars of the past, people like Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, David Beckham, even as far as Alexis Sanchez when he moved from Arsenal FC to Manchester United.

“I think the benefit will be obvious when we look at the accounts, they will be able to sign a couple of commercial deals and it will help with shirt sales. But whether Bayern benefit directly from that is another matter. I think what they bought him for is success in the Champions League, that’s where you will see significant returns with regard to prize money.”

But how much money could be available if Bayern Munich rides Kane to a Champions League title — and is that the only way the deal works financially for the Bavarians? Wilson also had thoughts on that.

“The Bundesliga cannot expect to see an increase in revenue through TV money. It’s a very uncompetitive league, similar to France, so the broadcast rights values are much lower than the Premier League. They might get a little bit of an uplift if he sets the league on fire, but Bayern would have won the league without Kane so I don’t think there’s an over benefit to the league. The benefit to Bayern will be broadcast packages when it comes to the Champions League. If they get to the final you’re talking about more than €80 million,” said Wilson. “But without winning the Champions League, I don’t think there will be commercial benefits for Bayern. I can’t see how they will sell significant new commercial opportunities with Kane beyond what they already generate, because they are a European heavyweight. They are probably punching above their weight already anyway given the German market.”

Wilson also was not sure that Kane’s move would provide a boost to Munich’s already bustling tourism scene.

“I couldn’t say with confidence that it will boost Munich’s standing as a tourism hotspot. But I think we can speculate that it might. You do tend to find that English football fans will look at the Bundesliga prices and find a trip there attractive, but Bayern is relatively sold out as a stadium anyway,” Wilson remarked. “There might be a little tourism benefit but they have spent a lot on his transfer fee, a lot on his wages and I don’t see them making at least a direct financial return. Maybe a few extra stag dos though!”

Want our thoughts on the state of Bayern Munich’s squad and a take on why you should be excited for Harry Kane this season? Check out our Weekend Warm-up Podcast on Spotify or below:

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