All right, then. The verdict is in and it’s practically unanimous. The pundits, the oddsmakers, the shade tree experts all agree that the Arizona Diamondbacks have about as much chance of beating the Phillies in the National League Championship as Alf Landon had against Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1936 Presidential election.
So, congratulations, Phillies. The World Series begins October 27. In the meantime, enjoy your little break and use these games to stay sharp for the games that really count against the Astros or Yankees. And if you do …
… there’s a good chance you’ll be in for a rude surprise.
It’s not surprising that the Phillies are favored. Then again, the Colts were 19-point favorites to beat the Jets in Super Bowl III. Buster Douglas was a 42-to-1 underdog against Mike Tyson in Tokyo in 1990. Nobody thought the 1964 Phils could possibly squander a 6½-game lead with 12 to play.
True that the Diamondbacks are largely untested in the postseason, making their first appearance this year since 2017. True, they won just 84 games during the regular season and claimed the sixth and final NL spot in the tournament. True, most outside observers didn’t expect them to survive the first two rounds.
Need another example of why none of that matters now? The Phillies only need to look in the clubhouse mirror to see the parallels to their own improbable run last autumn.
There’s one significant reason to suspect that the D-backs pose a greater threat to the Phillies’ chances of winning their second straight pennant and the third World Series in franchise history than the Marlins in the wild-card round or even the mighty Braves in the division series.
That’s because it’s difficult to imagine Arizona’s lineup generating as little offense as Miami and Atlanta did in the first two rounds.
That takes nothing away from the Phillies’ pitching, which has put up spectacular numbers — a 1.53 combined staff earned run average, for example — to this point.
But, to be realistic, the Marlins finished dead last in the league in runs scored. And while the Braves had a historically productive season at the plate, they were coming off a five-day hiatus. There’s been a contentious debate over whether or not a first-round bye actually harms a team’s chances, but the reality is that the three teams (Orioles, Dodgers, Braves) that won 100 games this season went 1-9 and batted a combined .201 after their playoff layoffs.
Arizona, by contrast, had a losing record as late as August 14 and had to play with a real sense of urgency just to qualify. And they’ve carried that into the postseason. Their .877 OPS is actually higher than the Phillies (.865). They’ve scored just two fewer runs in one less game while sweeping both the Brewers and Dodgers. And their pitching hasn’t been too shabby, either, posting a 2.20 ERA.
“I would say they’re playing a lot like us right now,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said Sunday before the Phillies worked out at Citizens Bank Park. “They’re hot. That’s what the postseason is all about. When you get in a rhythm, you get confidence. You get momentum and that’s something they’ve really played with this season.
“Their lineup is really deep. They have really good righthanded hitters. They have really good lefthanded hitters. They hit for power. They hit for average. They take their walks. Most of them are stealing bases.
“So it’s definitely a challenging lineup to navigate, but the most daunting thing about them right now is how much confidence they’re playing with.”
Realmuto touched on two points that could turn out to be pivotal for the Phillies: walks and stolen bases.
The Phillies have walked just 12 batters, an average of two per game, in 53 playoff innings. The three starters (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez) have walked just four.
“In my opinion, that’s everything in the postseason, not giving away free bases,” Realmuto said. “Every lineup we’re going to face here is going to be really good. Every hitter is going to be focused and locked in. So you’re just giving the (other team) a little bit of momentum when you give them a free pass instead of making them earn.
“We think (our pitching staff has) some of the best stuff in the league from top to bottom. So why not throw in the strike zone and attack the hitters and make them hit?”
That’s especially important against the Diamondbacks, who ranked second in baseball with 166 stolen bases this season and have been successful on 7-of-10 attempts in the postseason. Realmuto is one of the best at throwing runners out but any catcher needs help to keep from allowing runners to get a good jump.
The Phillies have made that more of a focus in recent weeks.
“Throughout most of the season, we didn’t do enough as far as changing up our times, being a little faster to the plate, being able to back-pick guys. Stuff like that, to slow down the running game,” Realmuto said. “It was costing us some games there in September so we finally paid a little more attention. We made some adjustments. Our pitchers were out there working on it before batting practice, stuff like that.
“Against a team like Arizona, that’s going to be really important. One, we’re going to try to keep them off the bases. But when they do get on, we’re going to have to really pay attention to them. That’s what they do really well, so we’re going to have to combat that.”
Oh, just one more thing: Take nothing for granted. All the quotes coming out of the Phillies clubhouse indicate that they’re aware of how dangerous the Diamondbacks can be. And there have been no indications that this bunch is even capable of letting down. Still, you never know what will happen once the games start.
Villanova toppled the Patrick Ewing-led Georgetown Hoyas in the NCAA basketball finals in 1985. The Falcons blew a 28-3 halftime lead against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. The Dodgers were supposed to have no chance against Oakland in the 1988 World Series, partly because Los Angeles wasn’t even sure Kirk Gibson would be healthy enough to play. The United States Olympic hockey team stunned the Soviet Union in 1980. The Mets were feeling pretty good about themselves when they had a seven-game lead over the Phillies with 17 to play in 2007.
The list is long. The Phillies are favored. That won’t get them back to the World Series. The only thing that will is four more wins and nothing is guaranteed.
