How a government shutdown could overwhelm air travel

In this week’s news, a possible shutdown of the federal government could have negative effects on the air travel experience; Delta plans to revive some California routes next year and add some new ones; Southwest plans to bring back an Oakland route in the spring; United and American say they will temporarily suspend some Northern California and West Coast service this winter; the startup Northern Pacific Airlines changes its name and adds two new routes; British Airways doubles its San Diego service and Korean Air increases capacity at San Francisco International; a new J.D. Power survey finds that passengers’ satisfaction with the airport experience has increased this year even as terminals become more crowded than ever; Austin and Houston Hobby airports embark on expansion projects.

Are you concerned about the possible impact of a U.S. government shutdown on air travel? Maybe you should be. Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to pass new spending legislation, and the relentless infighting within the Republican majority in the House is making a deal look less and less likely. And any bills that pass the House would have to be reconciled with spending legislation the Democratic-controlled Senate has already passed. So what would a shutdown mean in real terms? The White House this week issued a white paper about the likely impact on government operations that said a shutdown would bring a risk of “significant delays for travelers.” Why? “Air traffic controllers and TSA officers would have to work without pay — potentially leading to significant delays and longer wait times for travelers at airports across the country like there were during previous shutdowns,” the White House said. (Controllers, TSA agents and customs and immigration officers would keep working in the event of a shutdown because they are considered essential personnel.) 

The U.S. Travel Association, the industry’s largest trade organization, sounded a similar warning. It conducted a survey of more than 1,000 U.S. travelers earlier this month, and 60% of them said they would “cancel or avoid trips by air during a government shutdown.” USTA said an analysis by Tourism Economics, based on data from previous shutdowns, predicts that the travel industry overall could suffer economic losses of up to $140 million per day during a shutdown. The organization said that 86% of Americans agree a shutdown would inconvenience air travelers with more flight delays, longer screening lines, and setbacks in air travel modernization. And Simple Flying notes that the federal government’s ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers, which has led to delays and even reduced flight schedules in the northeast, could be exacerbated by a shutdown. “The US needs thousands of more air traffic controllers and is in the process of training more than 2,500 individuals for the job. A government shutdown could derail the training session as well as the hiring process,” Simple Flying said. 

Delta plans to beef up its presence in California and the West next summer by reviving some old routes and adding a few new ones. Effective June 7, Delta plans to revive daily flights between Atlanta-Oakland, Atlanta-Burbank, and Atlanta-Reno and begin new daily service from its big Atlanta hub to Fresno and Santa Barbara. Also scheduled to return June 7 are twice-daily Salt Lake City-Santa Barbara flights and daily service between Salt Lake City and Columbus, Ohio, and Anchorage and Detroit. On July 8, Delta said, it will resume daily Sacramento-Detroit service, increase its Sacramento-Atlanta schedule from three flights a day to four, and introduce a new Seattle-Dallas/Fort Worth route with two flights a day. Effective April 1, Delta plans to extend its Los Angeles-Aspen, Colorado, route from a seasonal operation to year-round service, with one daily CRJ-700 round-trip.

Delta isn’t the only airline planning to bring back Oakland-Atlanta flights. Southwest Airlines’ latest schedule update shows the carrier will resume OAK-ATL service on April 14, but only with one flight a week (on Sundays). Other Southwest changes in the spring include new Phoenix-Washington Dulles service three days a week starting April 9, and a resumption of weekend seasonal service between Houston Hobby and Charlotte, North Carolina, starting April 13 and Sunday-only flights between Dallas Love Field and Portland, Oregon, effective April 14.

United’s most recent schedule adjustment shows the suspension of some domestic routes this winter and a delayed resumption for some others. According to Aeroroutes.com, Sacramento will temporarily lose a couple of United transcontinental routes from Jan. 9 through March 30, including service to Newark and to Washington Dulles. During that same period, United plans to suspend Washington Dulles-Portland, Oregon, flights. And the carrier is expected to push back the resumption of Chicago O’Hare-Fresno service from Jan. 9 to March 10, O’Hare-Reno from Jan. 9 to March 7, and O’Hare-Spokane from Jan. 9 to May 2. American Airlines is also trimming some service this fall and winter, Aeroroutes reports, with plans to suspend flights between Santa Rosa and Dallas/Fort Worth from Dec. 5 to Feb. 14 and Chicago O’Hare-Portland from Nov. 5 to Jan. 7, and to delay the revival of Los Angeles-Fort Lauderdale service from Nov. 5 to Feb. 15. Meanwhile, United is due to start flying Embraer 175 regional jets beginning Sept. 29 from its Denver hub to Asheville and Greensboro, North Carolina; Dayton, Ohio; and Lexington, Kentucky. 

Northern Pacific Airlines, the new carrier that had ambitious plans to fly 757s from U.S. cities to northeast Asia via a stop in Anchorage but instead started small with limited service from Ontario, California, to Las Vegas, is back in the news. First, the airline changed its name from Northern Pacific to New Pacific Airlines. According to Simple Flying, the company’s hand was forced after the Texas-based freight rail giant BNSF sued the airline’s parent company for trademark infringement and won a preliminary injunction. The airline’s CEO Rob McKinney told Simple Flying he decided not to fight the railroad’s lawsuit because “my goal is to minimize legal disputes and side battles that don’t add to the overall goal of moving passengers.” And second, McKinney announced that the airline will add two more routes beginning Nov. 16, both domestic: Ontario to Reno and Ontario to Nashville. It plans to operate two to three flights a week on both routes and expand Ontario-Las Vegas to the same frequencies in mid-November.

In international route news, American’s Oneworld partner British Airways is adding some U.S. flights next spring, boosting its San Diego-London Heathrow schedule from one flight a day to two as of April 20 and increasing Las Vegas-London Gatwick service from three weekly flights to five starting March 31. BA has been serving San Diego with one daily flight since it started the route in 2011, but airport officials at SAN said passenger numbers from San Diego to London have risen dramatically during the post-pandemic recovery and are now running 28% higher than they were in 2019. San Francisco International is getting more capacity to South Korea: Effective Oct. 29, Korean Air is due to boost its SFO-Seoul Incheon schedule from the current daily service to 10 flights a week, all operated with 777-300ERs. Level, the Barcelona-based discount carrier that’s part of British Airways’ International Airlines Group, will add a fifth U.S. gateway on March 31 when it launches three weekly flights from Miami to Barcelona. Level already flies there from San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York JFK and Boston. Canada’s WestJet said it will add a new route Feb. 1 between Las Vegas and Victoria, B.C., with two flights a week.

When the COVID-19 outbreak caused passenger numbers to plummet a few years ago, researchers at J.D. Power noted in their annual survey of consumers’ attitudes toward the U.S. airport experience that as traveler numbers dropped, airport satisfaction increased because lines were much shorter and facilities less crowded. So you’d expect that this year, with air travel numbers setting new records, overcrowded terminals would send passenger satisfaction back down again. But they didn’t. “Faced with a potentially crippling combination of record high passenger volumes, an ongoing pilot shortage that shrank the number of available flights, and countless weather delays, passenger satisfaction improved,” J.D. Power said of its 2023 survey results, calling the finding “an amazing thing.”

The 2023 survey, with responses from 27,000 travelers, divides airports into three categories: mega (more than 33 million annual passengers), large (10 million to 33 million) and medium (4.5 million to 10 million). The top three mega airports this year were Detroit Metro, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Las Vegas Harry Reid (San Francisco International, which ranked sixth out of 20, was ranked 2nd last year). Among large airports, the top three were Tampa, Orange County Airport in Santa Ana, and Salt Lake City (San Jose and Oakland ranked 21st and 24th in that category). And the top three medium-sized airports were Indianapolis, Southwest Florida (Fort Myers), and Ontario International in California. 

Two Texas airports are getting bigger. Austin-Bergstrom International recently held groundbreaking ceremonies for its West Gate Expansion project, which will give its terminal another 84,500 square feet of space beyond gates 33 and 34 on three levels, including an upper-level outdoor public patio with views of the city’s skyline. “The project will construct three new gates that will eventually offset the closure of existing gates during future construction activities,” the airport said. The project will also provide new food and retail concessions, more seating areas, public art, and “the largest restrooms in the terminal,” the airport said. Southwest and American Airlines have been adding more routes and flights at AUS in recent months.

And at Houston Hobby, where Southwest Airlines controls 90% of the market, the Houston City Council has approved $250 million in funding for an expansion of the West Concourse due to begin in 2024. The two-year project will increase the West Concourse’s gate count from five to 12, with seven more gates that will be able to handle both domestic and international flights. The airport will also get an upgraded baggage system and a larger baggage claim area. The airport’s West Concourse opened in 2015, before which HOU had no international air service. In 2022, airport officials said, Houston Hobby handled 913,000 international passengers and 12.2 million domestic fliers.