Last week’s Eagles-Jets game didn’t go the way we – or the Eagles – anticipated. This season has been a bit unpredictable from an offensive standpoint for Nick Sirianni and company. But let’s see if we can find some value on a national stage as the Birds take on the high-octane Dolphins Sunday night.
All odds/lines courtesy PointsBet
Eagles vs Dolphins, Sunday 8:15pm
Point Spread/ML: Eagles -3/-150 Dolphins +3/+125
Total Points: 51.5
Analysis: The Eagles are getting the customary three points from being at home but with the issues in the secondary I wouldn’t consider them favorites, or even level with Miami. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS this season, and are averaging 37 points a game.
Picks: Dolphins +3, OVER 51.5 points
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts – 245.5 passing yds, 1.5 passing TDs, 22.5 completions
- Tua Tagovailoa – 275.5 passing yds, 1.5 passing TDs, 22.5 completions
Analysis: Hurts has topped 245 yards and 22 completions in each of his last four games. No reason not to ride that wave. Tua has had at least 21 completions in every game this season, and likely would have had more, but the Dolphins have won their last three by 50, 15, and 21 points, so they didn’t throw very much in the fourth quarter.
Picks: Hurts OVER 245.5 yards, OVER 22.5 completions; Tagovailoa OVER 22.5 completions
Rushing Props (O/U)
- D’Andre Swift – 65.5 yards, 15.5 attempts
- Raheem Mostert – 50.5 yards
- Jalen Hurts – 45.5 yards
Analysis: Miami is without RB Devon Achane (knee) for at least three more weeks, and without him Mostert ran for 115 yards and two scores against Carolina. My thinking is that the Eagles want to limit Miami’s possessions in this game, and that means a steady dose of Swift. If your sportsbook has a carries prop, hammer the OVER as well. Hurts has gone over 45.5 in his last two.
Picks: Mostert OVER, Swift OVER
Receiving Props (O/U)
- Tyreek Hill – 95.5 yards, 6.5 receptions
- A.J. Brown – 80.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
- Jaylen Waddle – 60.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- D’Andre Swift – 20.5 yards
Analysis: Brown. Over. Yards. Receptions. He has averaged 8/141 over his last four. Swift has topped his over in his last three, and had eight catches last week. Hill is making a case for league MVP thus far this season, and the Eagles secondary is being currently held together by chewing gun and chicken wire. Waddle may be worth a receptions play.
Picks: Brown OVER yards & receptions; Hill OVER yards & receptions; Waddle OVER receptions
Anytime Touchdown:
- Raheem Mostert -155
- Jalen Hurts -145
- D’Andre Swift -125
- Tyreek Hill -125
- A.J. Brown +105
- Jaylen Waddle +140
- Jeff Wilson +185
- Salvon Ahmed +185
- Dallas Goedert +190
- DeVonta Smith +200
Analysis: Mostert has 11 TDs already through six games, this seems like stealing money. Hill has been kept out of the end zone just once this season. Hurts will get his, and I see Hurts leaning on Brown against this week.
Picks: Mostert, Hill, Hurts, Brown
