Cleverly says bill ‘pushing at edge of envelope’ but still ‘within framework of international law’
John Baron (Con) asks Cleverly to confirm that the government will remain within international law.
Cleverly says he is confident, on the basis of conversations with the government’s legal advisers, that what it is doing is “within the framework of international law”.
But the measures are “novel”, and “very much pushing at the edge of the envelope”, he says.
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Small boat arrivals have been cut by a third, he says. In other European countries, illegal immigration is going up. So the PM’s plan is working, he says.
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He claims Labour does not believe in border security. This will be one of the defining issues of the 21st century, he says.
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He says the strongest possible deterrent is needed. And the Rwanda scheme is the only possible deterrent available in the next 12 months.
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He says that, having immersed himself in the detail, he thinks the Rwanda scheme will work.
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He says people don’t like having asylum hotels in their towns. Even MPs who are the strongest supporters of open borders object to asylum hotels, he says. He accuses them of hypocrisy.
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If Labour were in power, there would be a decade of small boat arrivals, he says.
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Turning to the bill, he says there are two main problems with it.
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First, it will not stop people appealing as individuals against deportation orders. This will provide legal certainty. And it is necessary for operational reasons, too, he says. That’s because, if individual claims are allowed, the courts will be overwhelmed with claims, and detention facilities will fill up. People will have to be released, and they will disappear. That will bring the system into disrepute.
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Meg Hillier (Lab) says she is a former immigration minister. At the end of Labour’s last term in government, one person was being removed every eight minutes, she says. She asks what Jenrick’s record is.
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Jenrick says there has been a ten-fold increase in the pace of decision-making. He says Labour is on rocky ground.
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Turning back to the bill, he says it is inevitable that the European court of human rights will impose further injunctions to block deportation flights. They have to stop that, he says.
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He says the provision in the bill is “sophistry”. He says it is government policy that rule 39 injunctions are binding in international law. MPs are being asked to vote for a provision in the bill (allowing ministers to ignore those injuctions) that it would be illegal to use.
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This is the point Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg was getting at earlier. See 1.03pm.
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UPDATE: Jenrick said:
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It is inevitable … in light of the supreme court’s judgment, that the Strasbourg court will impose further Rule 39 interim measures … we have to stop that, it is a matter of sovereignty for our country that ministers acting on the instructions of parliament do not allow those flights to be delayed.
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The provision in the bill is sophistry. It is the express policy of the government that rule 39 injunctions are binding and to ignore them would be a breach of international law.
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So, we are being asked to vote for a provision which it would be illegal to use.
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Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, is opening her speech.
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She says Cleverly has confirmed that the total cost of the scheme is now £400m.
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(She is referring to Cleverly confirming earlier that two further payments of £50m were due. He did confirm what Cooper was asking. But it was not clear whether he was referring to two payments in 2024-25 and 2025-26, or whether he was referring to two payments in 2025-26 and 2026-27, which is how Cooper is interpreting his comments. Cooper just asked about payments in the calendar years 2025 and 2026, not payments in the financial years. See 12.56pm.)
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The Rwanda bill says it is up to ministers to decide whether or not they will ignore an injunction from the European court of human rights stopping a deportation flight leaving. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, asks if the advice from the attorney general says it would be compatible within international law for a minister to ignore such an injunction.
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Cleverly says he cannot reveal the attorney’s advice. But he says the government is clear that the bill is in accordance with international law.
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Cleverly says Rwanda is introducing an even stronger end-to-end asylum system.
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Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, asks Cleverly to confirm that the UK will give Rwanda a further £50m in 2025 and another £50m in 2026.
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Cleverly claims Cooper is asking him to confirm numbers that have already been put in the public domain. He says he is happy to confirm that is the case.
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(Cleverly seems to be referring to the Home Office letter published last week, but that only revealed that the government had given another £100m to Rwanda this year, and that it was planning to give another £50m in 2024-25. But Cooper asked about a further payment of £50m in 2026, which Cleverly confirmed. That seems to be new, and would take the total payment to Rwanda by 2026 to £340m.)
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John Baron (Con) asks Cleverly to confirm that the government will remain within international law.
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Cleverly says he is confident, on the basis of conversations with the government’s legal advisers, that what it is doing is “within the framework of international law”.
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But the measures are “novel”, and “very much pushing at the edge of the envelope”, he says.
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James Cleverly, the home secretary, is opening the debate on the Rwanda bill.
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He starts by referring to the death of an asylum seeker on the Bibby Stockholm barge. He says he cannot go into details, but the case is being investigated, he says.
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He goes on:
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This government is stopping the boats. Arrivals are down by a third this year as illegal entries are on the rise elsewhere in Europe. Indeed arrivals are up by 80% in the Mediterranean, they are down by a third across the Channel.
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Last week Rishi Sunak suggested that, if he were to toughen the Rwanda bill by “an inch”, it would become unworkable (because it would no longer be acceptable to Rwanda).
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But now No 10 is sounding a little more receptive to possible changes to the bill. At the Downing Street lobby briefing, asked if Sunak still thought it would be impossible to make the bill stronger, the PM’s spokesperson said:
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We are willing to listen to constructive comments from colleagues. We believe this is a tough piece of legislation which will achieve its objectives and the public’s objectives of stopping the boats.
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The spokesperson said Downing Street would not be pulling the bill – which is what Mark Francois, chair of the European Research Group, has been saying should happen.
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(If No 10 was planning to pull the bill, it left it a bit late; the second reading debate is starting in about five minutes.)
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The spokesperson also confirmed that the climate change minister, Graham Stuart, has been ordered to return from the Cop28 summit in Dubai for tonight’s vote.
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Nick Brown, a former chief whip, has announced he is standing down as an MP at the next election – and resigning his party membership in protest at the way an allegation against him is being investigated.
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The MP for Newcastle upon Tyne East has had the whip suspended for more than a year after a complaint was lodged against him under the party’s independent complaints procedure.
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In a statement issued today via lawyers, Brown said the complaint was made by a political rival and related to something alleged to have happened more than 25 years ago. He also said the accusations were “entirely false”.
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Brown said that, when the complaint was first lodged, he was “determined to trust” the party’s disciplinary process.
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But, in his statement today, he said he had concluded that he was not getting a fair hearing because the party’s procedures were “flawed” and lacked “the most basic of procedural fairness and evidential safeguards”.
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He said disciplinary hearings were not taking place in person, that witnesses were not allowed to be questioned by lawyers, and that the panel was considering evidence from friends of the complainants who did not know anything about the allegation until the complainant mentioned it to them more than 20 years after it was supposed to have happened. He went on:
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My own legal team – which include a leading KC and a leading public law barrister – have told me that, in light of the party’s refusal to comply with even the most basic of safeguards, evidential and procedural measures to be expected of any quasi-judicial process, they are unable to advise me that I could expect a fair hearing.
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Things have reached a very sorry pass when the likely next party of government conducts cases of this gravity in a manner more akin to those of a mismanaged golf club.
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Brown was first elected to the Commons in 1983. He was (at least until last year) one of the great survivors of postwar politics, having served as Tony Blair’s chief whip when Blair was first PM, Gordon Brown’s chief whip in the final two years of the Labour government, and then chief whip again under Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer. Including brief spells doing the job under Harriet Harman and Ed Miliband, he has served as chief whip under six Labour leaders.
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In his statement, Brown said that, at the age of 73, and with his constituency boundaries being withdrawn, he thought it was the right time to leave parliament.
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EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1702383839000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.23 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1702383044000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.10 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.10″,”title”:”Former chief whip Nick Brown resigns from Labour in protest at ‘flawed’ handling of complaint against him”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 12 Dec 2023 09.54 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 12 Dec 2023 04.09 EST”},{“id”:”6578432a8f08c4c875ce9c6d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Q: If the Rwanda bill does pass, how quickly would you repeal it? And if you are in power, will you guarantee not to send anyone to Rwanda.
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Starmer says he thinks the bill will go through tonight. The PM has an 80-seat majority. He says they should not allow the PM the indulgence of thinking it will be tight, and giving him credit if it wins.
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(Starmer is wrong. Boris Johnson had an 80-seat majority after the 2019 general election, but byelection defeats have reduced it considerably. The Commons website says the government currently has a working majority of 56.)
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He says he does not know what will happen to the bill after that.
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But, if Labour wins the election, it will focus on a more effective way of dealing with the problem.
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If the PM does lose, “of course he should call a general election”, he says.
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And that is the end of the Q&A.
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This is what PA Media has filed on the death of an asylum seeker on the Bibby Stockholm barge.
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\n
An asylum seeker onboard the Bibby Stockholm asylum barge has died, the PA news agency understands.
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The first asylum seekers were brought back to the giant vessel, moored in Portland, Dorset, in October, some two months after it was evacuated following the discovery of Legionella bacteria in the water supply.
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Further details of the incident are yet to be confirmed.
\n
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Keir Starmer is now delivering a speech in Silverstone. According to the extracts released in advance, he will urge voters to “turn the page on this miserable chapter of decline” and elect a Labour administration capable of delivering competent government.
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Referring to small boats, he will say:
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\n
Britain is a practical nation – always has been. People can’t afford Christmas. If they call an ambulance this winter – they don’t know if it will come. 6,000 crimes go unpunished – every day. Common sense is rolling your sleeves up and solving these problems practically, not indulging in some kind of political performance art.
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This goes for stopping the boats as well. It’s not about wave machines, or armoured jet skis, or schemes like Rwanda you know will never work.
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It’s about doing the basics better. The mundane stuff. The bureaucratic stuff. Busting the backlogs. Rebuilding a functioning asylum system. Removing people more quickly so you don’t have to run up hotel bills. And cross-border police force that can smash the smuggler gangs at source.
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I’ve done this before as director of public prosecutions when we took on the terrorists and the people-smugglers. We can do the same here. Stopping the boats means stopping the gimmicks.
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If they can’t find a way to do that, if they can’t find a way to focus on the job, fix our problems without breaking international law like every government before them, then it’s time to stand aside and let the Labour party do it for them.
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Here is Ben Quinn’s preview of the speech.
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Parliament’s joint committee on human rights, which is cross-party and chaired by Labour’s Harriet Harman, has published its own briefing on the human rights concerns raised by the Rwanda bill. (It is described as the “chair’s briefing paper”, but the press release implies its a briefing from the whole committee.)
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The briefing argues that the bill is “inconsistent” with the European convention on human rights. It says:
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The bill would require all domestic courts to accept that Rwanda is safe and not to consider any review or appeal brought on the grounds that it is not – even if there is compelling evidence in support. This raises difficult constitutional questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law. It would prevent the courts considering arguable claims that removal to Rwanda is unsafe, which would expose individuals to a risk of their fundamental rights not to be subjected to inhuman and degrading treatment being violated, and is inconsistent with the right to an effective remedy guaranteed under article 13 ECHR [European convention on human rights].
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The requirement that all decision-makers conclusively treat Rwanda as safe applies notwithstanding laws including key provisions of the Human Rights Act. This would permit public authorities to act incompatibly with convention rights, which would be inconsistent with the UK’s obligations under the ECHR. Disapplying the HRA in respect of a particular cohort runs contrary to the fundamental principle that human rights are universal.
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While the bill can alter domestic law, parliament cannot legislate away the UK’s obligations in international law including the prohibition on refoulement under the Refugee Convention and the ECHR. Under the ECHR, any individual who is selected for removal to Rwanda is able to make an application to the European court of human rights (ECtHR) and the UK will be bound by that court’s judgment.
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The ECtHR has the power to issue interim measures, effectively an order requiring states to refrain from taking certain action while a human rights claim is considered. They have done so previously, preventing the initial flights to Rwanda. The bill would provide that a minister, and only a minister, may choose whether or not to comply with interim measures. Since interim measures have been held to be binding under the ECHR, this provision purports to permit a minister to act in breach of international law.
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The public law professor Mark Elliott has a good thread on X about the report. It starts here.
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1. The UK Parliament's Joint Committee on Human Rights (@HumanRightsCtte) has published a preliminary analysis of the Rwanda Bill. Here's a short thread with some key excerpts. https://t.co/AKDBMEQIVS pic.twitter.com/nHTDowkFu4
— Mark Elliott (@ProfMarkElliott) December 12, 2023
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At its core the debate between supporters and opponents of the Rwanda bill, at least within the Conservative party, is about whether or not the UK parliament can and should ignore international law. But the details get quite complicated, and if you want to follow the debate in its complexity, here are some documents that are helpful.
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Bill material
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The 12-page text of the bill
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A briefing from the House of Commons library explaining what the bill does
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Legal analysis – supportive
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The government’s own legal assessment of the bill
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A briefing from the Society of Conservative Lawyers
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Legal analysis – critical
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The analysis from the European Research Group’s “star chamber”
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A research note from the Policy Exchange thinktank (which is not as critical as the ERG analysis, and urges MPs to support the bill, but also proposes amendments)
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Legal analysis – from academic lawyers
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An analysis for the Institute for Government from Tom Hickman, a professor of public law
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A report on the bill from the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law by Murray Hunt, a visiting professor of human rights law
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Michael Tomlinson, the new minister for illegal migration, has been giving interviews this morning. Defending the provision in the Rwanda bill that will allow some appeals against deportation to continue (even though the bill is intended to close most routes to a successful appeal), Tomlinson told the Today programme blocking all right to appeal would be unBritish. He said:
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We have shut out virtually every single claim that is possible. What is not possible is to shut out every single claim.
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Nor would that be right, for two reasons. Firstly, it would breach international law. That is not the right thing to do. Secondly, because it is not the British thing to do. Even during the second world war did we not shut out claims going to court.
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Ben Quinn has the full story here.
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Good morning. Rishi Sunak and his team will spend the day trying to win round Conservative MPs unsure whether to support his Rwanda deportation bill before the vote at 7pm tonight. He has already held a breakfast meeting with some of the most intransigent potential rebels, but there is no evidence (yet?) that he had much success; as they left, they would not talk to the media.
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Ahead of what may be the most important parliamentary vote of Sunak’s premiership, here is our overnight preview by Kiran Stacey and Rajeev Syal.
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And these are from the BBC’s Henry Zeffman, who has been broadcasting from Downing Street this morning.
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About 15 Conservative MPs just arrived for crucial breakfast with Rishi Sunak, including Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Miriam Cates, Neil O’Brien pic.twitter.com/iF6h6eCmd4
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 12, 2023
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Others present include Jonathan Gullis, Marco Longhi, Lia Nici, Jill Mortimer, Tom Hunt, Alex Stafford
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 12, 2023
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An hour later and breakfast is over. No comment from the MPs as they left on whether Sunak has won them round
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 12, 2023
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And this is from PA Media:
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The MPs said nothing as they left Downing Street.
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None answered when asked by reporters if they had been persuaded by Rishi Sunak.
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They left together just after 8.30am.
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It seems more likely than not – but not certain – that Sunak will win the vote tonight. A government has not lost a bill at second reading since 1986, when the shops bill (which would have allowed Sunday trading) was defeated by Labour and rebel Tory MPs who wanted to protect Sunday as a day of rest. The issue was relatively marginal, and Margaret Thatcher went on to win a general election handsomely the following year. But, for Sunak, “stopping the boats” is a core mission for his government and, without this bill, he would no longer have a plan at all. A defeat would be utterly disastrous, and no one knows where that might lead.
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But, even if Sunak wins, that will probably just mean the key battle on this legislation being postponed until MPs vote on amendments, after Christmas.
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One way or the other, by the end of the day we’ll have a clearer insight into just how perilous this row is for the Sunak administration.
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I’ll mostly be focusing on this story today, although we also have a big speech from Keir Starmer this morning that I’ll be covering in detail.
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Here is the agenda for the day.
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9.30am: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
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10.30am: Keir Starmer gives a speech near Milton Keynes.
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11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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After 12.30pm: MPs begin the debate on the second reading of the safety of Rwanda (immigration and asylum) bill.
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2pm: David Cameron gives evidence as foreign secretary to the Commons European scrutiny committee.
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7pm: MPs vote on the Rwanda bill.
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If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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Key events
Sir Bob Neill, the Conservative chair of the justice committee, says he can just about vote for the bill.
But he stresses that he is a constitutionalist. He suggests the day the Conservative party thinks that the ends justify the means, and that it can ignore the principle of comity, he will no longer be able to support it. The government must recognise the importance of checks and balances, he says.
He says, with “great endeavour”, ministers have just kept on the right side of the line. But he says they should not give in to MPs who want them to go further.
Kitty Donaldson from Bloomberg says some Tory rebels think between 20 and 30 MPs will rebel tonight. A government MP can rebel either by voting against the government, or by abstaining.
– Close to wire BUT three Tory rebels privately think Rishi Sunak will win the vote tonight
– One puts number of rebels at 20
– Another predicts 25 but only 10 voting against
– Third suggests 20-30 with most abstaining
– Next skirmish in Jan
In his interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the weekend, Robert Jenrick, asked if he would be voting for the bill, replied: “No, I won’t be supporting this bill. But I do think we can fix it.”
In his speech this afternoon Jenrick sounded more positive about the bill. He said:
This is not a bad bill but it is not the best bill. I want this bill to work.
The test of this policy is not: ‘Is it the strongest bill we’ve done?’, it’s not: ‘Is it a good compromise?’, it’s: ‘Will it work?’
That is all the public care about. They don’t care about Rwanda as a scheme, they care about stopping the boats. And we are sent here to do that for them.
I will never elevate contested notions of international law over the interests of my constituents, over vital national interests like national security, like border security.
This bill could be so much better, let’s make it better. Let’s make it work.
This prompted some speculation on social media that he might vote for the bill after all. But Emilio Casalicchio has confirmed that Jenrick is not voting for the bill.
Jenrick is expected to abstain, like other Conservative MPs with doubts about the bill.
Sir Geoffrey Cox, the Conservative former attorney general, is next up. He has been giving interviews within the past 24 hours backing the government, and he says he wants to address both those who think the bill goes too far, and those who thinks it does not go far enough.
Addressing Labour critics of the bill, he says the last Labour government declared that some countries should be deemed safe for asylum seekers.
Some people say this bill is different because the bill is reversing a supreme court judgment. But parliament is entitled to reverse a decision by the courts, he says.
He says this bill is doing exactly what Labour did in 2004.
He says the new treaty with Rwanda removes the risk of “refoulement” – asylum seekers being sent back to the country where they were at risk of persecution.
Turning to the Tory objections to the bill, he says it would be wrong to remove all rights to legal challenge to deportation. If the government did that, the deal with Rwanda would collapse, he says.
The right to go to court in an extreme case is part of the British constitution that the Conservative party has long defended, he says.
Diana Johnson, the Labour chair of the home affairs committee, is speaking now. She says her committee has not been able to get the Home Office to say how much it will spend on each individual asylum seeker sent to Rwanda. She says Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, should provide costings when he winds up the debate later.
Back in the Commons Sir Bill Cash, who led the European Research Group’s “star chamber” panel of legal experts who published a report on the Rwanda bill, is speaking now.
He says if parliament passes a law, the courts should apply it, whether it breaks international law or not.
He praises Robert Jenrick for his speech. And he says that he thinks the bill can be improved.
A reader asks:
The government is recalling a minister from the climate summit. Why can’t they ask the opposition for a pairing? Given the importance of Cop28 to the UK, Labour might have agreed to this … or is this more performative from the Conservatives?
The government and opposition do agree to pair MPs, and I’m sure they have done that today. But if the opposition have only got, say, 14 MPs who can’t make the vote because they are ill/away or whatever, that is all they will offer the government – even if the government wants more pairs. And the government normally has more people away because there 100-odd MPs who are in government and might be away on government business.
Alison Thewliss, the SNP’s spokesperson on home affairs, says the Rwanda bill will not work because it does not deal with the reasons people come to the UK.
She says her constituency has the highest asylum caseload in Scotland. She refers to a constituent from Sudan granted refugee status. He says he just wants his wife to join him. But there is no safe and legal refugee route from Sudan. So what would MPs do if they were in his position?
Jenrick calls Rwanda bill ‘sophistry’ because it will not stop European court of human rights blocking deportation flights
Robert Jenrick starts by saying the government has made progress tackling illegal immigration.
Small boat arrivals have been cut by a third, he says. In other European countries, illegal immigration is going up. So the PM’s plan is working, he says.
He claims Labour does not believe in border security. This will be one of the defining issues of the 21st century, he says.
He says the strongest possible deterrent is needed. And the Rwanda scheme is the only possible deterrent available in the next 12 months.
He says that, having immersed himself in the detail, he thinks the Rwanda scheme will work.
He says people don’t like having asylum hotels in their towns. Even MPs who are the strongest supporters of open borders object to asylum hotels, he says. He accuses them of hypocrisy.
If Labour were in power, there would be a decade of small boat arrivals, he says.
Turning to the bill, he says there are two main problems with it.
First, it will not stop people appealing as individuals against deportation orders. This will provide legal certainty. And it is necessary for operational reasons, too, he says. That’s because, if individual claims are allowed, the courts will be overwhelmed with claims, and detention facilities will fill up. People will have to be released, and they will disappear. That will bring the system into disrepute.
Meg Hillier (Lab) says she is a former immigration minister. At the end of Labour’s last term in government, one person was being removed every eight minutes, she says. She asks what Jenrick’s record is.
Jenrick says there has been a ten-fold increase in the pace of decision-making. He says Labour is on rocky ground.
Turning back to the bill, he says it is inevitable that the European court of human rights will impose further injunctions to block deportation flights. They have to stop that, he says.
He says the provision in the bill is “sophistry”. He says it is government policy that rule 39 injunctions are binding in international law. MPs are being asked to vote for a provision in the bill (allowing ministers to ignore those injuctions) that it would be illegal to use.
This is the point Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg was getting at earlier. See 1.03pm.
UPDATE: Jenrick said:
It is inevitable … in light of the supreme court’s judgment, that the Strasbourg court will impose further Rule 39 interim measures … we have to stop that, it is a matter of sovereignty for our country that ministers acting on the instructions of parliament do not allow those flights to be delayed.
The provision in the bill is sophistry. It is the express policy of the government that rule 39 injunctions are binding and to ignore them would be a breach of international law.
So, we are being asked to vote for a provision which it would be illegal to use.
Dame Rosie Winterton, the deputy speaker, says many MPs want to speak. She suggests an eight-minute time limit on speeches.
She calls Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister, as the first backbencher speaker.
Cooper says MPs should be building cross-party consensus on this.
As Tory MPs jeer, she says they cannot even build consensus on their own side on this.
Sir John Hayes (Con) says Labour MPs think international law trumps the sovereignty of parliament, while MPs on his side believe the opposite.
Cooper says they are debating this bill not because of a judgment from a foreign court, but because of a ruling from the supreme court.
She says the Tory row is not about having a workable solution to his issue.
Sir Geoffrey Cox, a former Tory attorney general, says the past Labour government deemed a whole list of countries safe for asylum seekers.
Cooper says Cox is wrong. What the government is doing with this bill is not just deeming countries safe, but preventing courts from considering the facts. She says the government itself acknowledged in its legal guidance published yesterday that reality cannot be ignored. She quotes this passage from the advice:
Deeming clauses are used frequently in domestic law and there is a rich case law on how they are to be interpreted. In Fowler v Revenue and Customs [2020] UKSC 22, Lord Briggs, writing in a unanimous supreme court judgment, endorsed the position that: “A deeming provision should not be applied so far as to produce unjust, absurd or anomalous results, unless the court is compelled to do so by clear language. But the court should not shrink from applying the fiction created by the deeming provision to the consequences which would inevitably flow from the fiction being real. As Lord Asquith memorably put it in East End Dwellings Co Ltd v Finsbury borough council [1952] AC 109, at 133: ‘The statute says that you must imagine a certain state of affairs; it does not say that having done so, you must cause or permit your imagination to boggle when it comes to the inevitable corollaries of that state of affairs.’”