SAN FRANCISCO — For all that is swirling around Farhan Zaidi right now, the Giants’ president of baseball operations probably can’t help but crack a smile when he looks at the list of San Francisco’s arbitration-eligible players.
It’s essentially a recap of Zaidi’s greatest hits in five years in San Francisco.
The list includes Thairo Estrada, Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr., who all were acquired for minimal to no cost and have turned into consistent contributors in orange and black. All three have had long stretches in San Francisco where they have played like All-Stars.
J.D. Davis was an All-Star candidate in the first half of 2023, and that trade — which also netted the Giants pitching prospect Carson Seymour — might be Zaidi’s best move in San Francisco. The arbitration class is rounded out by Tyler Rogers and Austin Slater, two players who were here before the new regime but have flourished with increased opportunities.
It would make complete sense for Zaidi to tender contracts to all six before the deadline next month. But at the same time, the Giants are heading into a winter of change, and there’s an element of, “You’re not really going to keep the whole band together, are you?”
At his end-of-season press conference, Zaidi was asked about how he would balance the situation.
“It’s interesting, there are teams that are not in the playoffs that had disappointing seasons that had those superstar players and the refrain you hear is, ‘We didn’t have the right players around them, we didn’t have the right complementary players,'” Zaidi said. “Not every acquisition we make and not every retention decision we make is going to be around a star, even though I understand a lot of the conversation is going to be about that.”
Zaidi might as well have pointed to Petco Park with that statement. Put a few of those cost-controlled depth pieces around the star power in San Diego and the Padres are certainly a playoff team. The Giants, on the other hand, have solid depth, but are sorely lacking in star power.
They plan to be right in the middle of discussions for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in particular, but they’ll be joined by every big-market MLB club in those pursuits. Landing one would make for a strong offseason.
Pairing one with a marquee trade acquisition would make it a franchise-altering offseason, but the Giants are well aware that even in a dream world, they’re still just talking about adding one or two significant pieces this offseason.
Zaidi mentioned multiple times last week that 15-20 of the current Giants will definitely be back, which includes most, if not all, of the arbitration class.
Estrada is the easiest decision, with MLB Trade Rumors — which tends to be extremely accurate with arbitration numbers — estimating he’ll earn $4.8 million. That’s an absolute steal for a player who just posted 3.9 fWAR, and given how much Estrada continues to improve and the fact that he’s only 27, the Giants should explore a multi-year deal that buys out his arbitration years and gives him long-term security.
Wade ($3.3 million) and Rogers ($3.2 million) are also very easy calls. While Wade’s numbers took a dip in the second half as he played through back discomfort, he still finished with 17 homers, a .373 OBP, and posted a two-win season. The Giants are unlikely to find a better answer at first base than a Wade-Wilmer Flores platoon for about $10 million.
Rogers had a 3.04 ERA in 68 appearances and led the National League in holds. There’s a lot that needs to be fixed this offseason, but going into 2024 with the Rogers Twins and Camilo Doval at the back end of the bullpen is a pretty nice setup.
Based on their 2023 production and projected salaries, the other three should be pretty easy calls, too. Yastrzemski is a strong defender in right, a good baserunner, and had a wRC+ of 112 despite playing most of the season with a sore hamstring. He has done nothing but churn out two-WAR seasons since coming over from the Baltimore Orioles, and even with a projected raise to $7.3 million, he’s a strong value play. The 33-year-old was also a tone-setter in a clubhouse lacking leadership.
Slater was instructed to slow things down a bit because of a hamstring strain and will have arthroscopic surgery on an elbow that has bothered him for years, but he’s still a valuable platoon piece. He posted a .800 OPS against lefties and there might not be anyone in baseball who is more comfortable pinch-hitting. He’s projected to earn $3.6 million in arbitration.
Davis is projected at $6.8 million and his OPS dropped 150 points in the second half. But he still finished with 18 homers and his defensive improvement was one of the highlights of the season.
Viewed individually, it makes sense to bring all six back at those prices. But Zaidi is putting together a puzzle, and that might make a couple of the decisions more complicated than they look on paper.
If Michael Conforto opts in, the Giants will have Conforto and Haniger in their outfield with Luis Matos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos also on the 40-man. Would they really want to bring both Yastrzemski and Slater back and essentially run it back with an outfield group that was one of the glaring weaknesses in 2023?
Davis was a starter at third for most of the year, but the Giants have high hopes for Casey Schmitt, who is a potential Gold Glove-caliber defender and finished his season on a high note offensively. They might be ready to commit to a Luciano-Schmitt left side, with Fitzgerald backing both up, but 2023 was a reminder of how risky that can be.
A year ago at this time they committed to David Villar at third, and Davis ended up being a savior when Villar had a rough April. His ability to play first against lefties could also be valuable, assuming Flores sees more time at DH next season.
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The arbitration class will cost about $30 million to bring back for 2024, but it includes a valuable reliever and four of the roster’s top six position players by FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement. It seems likely that Zaidi will decide to bring all six back, knowing he can clear out any logjams with trades if the Giants are able to make multiple big moves in free agency.
The fan base wants wholesale changes, but depth will still be needed, including as the Giants go into pitch meetings.
“As we get into free agency and recruit players, we have to convince them that we have the right players around them,” Zaidi said. “I think a lot of the players we have are part of the solution and part of a playoff team. We’re just going to have to balance that against the changes that we’re thinking about.”
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