After a three-month delay, Thailand’s Parliament chose the country’s next prime minister on Tuesday, picking a real estate tycoon from a party seen as acceptable to conservative elites. The move ends, for now, a prolonged period of uncertainty that had pushed the country to the cusp of a political crisis.
The selection of Srettha Thavisin capped a dramatic day in Thailand, where, in the morning, Thaksin Shinawatra, the former premier who was ousted in a coup and has been living in exile since 2006, returned for the first time in 15 years. He was quickly taken into custody, as he was sentenced to prison earlier in connection with three corruption and abuse-of-power cases.
Mr. Srettha is a close ally of Mr. Thaksin, and many analysts had said the former leader’s return reflected the degree of confidence that he has in Pheu Thai — the populist party that he founded in 2007 and that Mr. Srettha is part of — to form a government.
Thailand has not named a new prime minister since its general election in May, when Pita Limjaroenrat led his progressive Move Forward Party to victory. Mr. Pita’s party had vowed to weaken a law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy and shrink the military. After the election, he was functionally blocked from office by allies of both institutions.
Mr. Srettha received 482 combined votes in the House of Representatives and the military-appointed Senate, surpassing the 374 votes he needed to win the premiership.
Now comes the hard part.
Even with the current political deadlock resolved for now, Mr. Srettha, 60, faces the immense challenge of meeting the demands of an electorate that voted for change and is now disillusioned with his party, which once actively campaigned against the military junta but is now working with it. He will have to manage the tensions between the public and the country’s powerful institutions — the military and the royalist establishment — that appear certain to continue for months or years to come.
Move Forward’s push to amend the law penalizing those who criticize the monarchy splintered the initial eight-party coalition, causing its eventual collapse. Pheu Thai said it had to form a new coalition without the Move Forward Party because the latter refused to withdraw its pledge to revise the law.
Supporters of Move Forward have responded angrily to Pheu Thai’s decision to part ways, pouring fake blood on effigies and setting them alight in front of the headquarters of Pheu Thai. Since the first failed vote for Mr. Pita, sporadic protests have broken out in the streets of Bangkok, with supporters denouncing what they say are the establishment’s efforts to erode the will of the people.
Pheu Thai vowed repeatedly to get the military out of politics, but it relied on the military’s support for Mr. Srettha to help get him into office. It included two parties linked with the military leaders of the 2014 coup against Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in its 11-party coalition. On Tuesday, Move Forward’s parliamentarians voted against Mr. Srettha; they had announced earlier that they would do so because Pheu Thai was forming a government with military-linked parties.
Mr. Thaksin’s homecoming underscores a realignment in Thai politics that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago. He was long viewed as a threat to wealthy Thai society, and his influence was considered to be so dangerous that the military launched a coup against him, and later his sister, Ms. Yingluck. His name recalls bitter divisions between the pro-Thaksin “red shirt” protesters from the rural north and the anti-Thaksin “yellow shirt” faction made up of royalists and the urban elite.
But Mr. Thaksin is now seen as the potential face of compromise, a possible ally of Mr. Srettha to represent the interests of the old guard. While he was in exile, he was tried and found guilty of corruption and abuse of power, and sentenced to eight years in prison. He has long said he could never return to Thailand because he would not be able to get a fair trial. His return now has fueled speculation that he made a deal with powerful royalists to have his jail term reduced in exchange for keeping the military and conservative establishment in power.
After Move Forward scored a surprise victory in the May election, the political obstacles facing the party escalated swiftly. Thailand’s Election Commission asked the Constitutional Court to suspend Mr. Pita from Parliament because he had been under investigation in connection with his shares in a now-defunct media company, which could disqualify him from running for office. The Constitutional Court also said it had accepted a complaint against Mr. Pita over his calls to amend the law on criticism of the monarchy, a case that could result in the dissolution of the party. Last week, the Constitutional Court dismissed a petition to renominate Mr. Pita as the country’s next prime minister.
At a news conference last month, Move Forward’s party secretary, Chaithawat Tulathon, said it was clear that Thailand’s conservative forces — the politicians, big corporations and institutions — would not let Move Forward form a government.
Crucially for the establishment, Pheu Thai has said it would not change the law on criticism of the monarchy. Mr. Srettha had previously said he was in favor of amending it. But ahead of the vote, he changed his tune, saying that Pheu Thai would firmly oppose any change because it “will not receive support from political parties and senators.”
Mr. Srettha founded Sansiri, one of Thailand’s biggest property companies. In an April television interview, he said he was motivated to join politics because he felt he was ready and saw “the mismanagement of the nation.” He has said he would pursue free trade agreements and promote Thailand as an investment destination.
Duncan McCargo, an expert on Thai politics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said that while Mr. Srettha lacked support among the party’s base in the countryside, the middle class in Bangkok saw him as a technocrat who could manage the economy.
“Srettha’s appeal is basically ‘Thais love billionaires,’” he said. “He’s very much a member of the Bangkok elite, and that is his strength. It’s also, from a political point of view, a weakness.”
Mr. Srettha is known for his outspoken views on social media, a rarity among businesspeople in Thailand. He is pro-L.G.B.T.Q., setting up gender-neutral bathrooms at his company and calling on staff to eliminate discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.
If given the chance to become prime minister, Mr. Srettha told local media he aims to fix inequality in Thailand by raising taxes.
“We have to be brave — brave to do the right things even though it’s not popular,” he said.
Mike Ives contributed reporting.
