Sunday, October 29, 2023
Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: Screengrab CNN appearance
Baseball fans are gearing up for the World Series, and let’s face it, political fans are gearing up, too. Quite honestly, the two worlds overlap at times, which can be amusing. You could even say the House Republicans “struck out” after three nominees for speaker failed to “cross home plate,” but they finally found someone. Let’s “brunch” on this, and more!
“The Trump Triple Play” – It’s a rare event in baseball, but it happens when a team gets called out three times, on the very same play. It’s not a feat to brag about when you are the team on offensive team. Trump’s “three outs” consisted of his lawyer Jenna Ellis pleading guilty in the Georgia elections case and agreeing to testify (it’s rumored six more co-defendants may do the same). Out number two came when it was revealed that former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows was cooperating with the U.S. Justice Department investigation. And the third out came when former Trump lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen testified against Trump in his New York civil case. You can even add a fourth out after Trump was fined $10,000 for violating a court gag order in his civil trial. It’s his second fine for the same offense.
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“Damage Control?” – Of course, all the bad legal news headlines have been coming for Trump for months, but has it done any permanent damage? Apparently not! Let’s look at the latest Real Clear Politics Composite Polls for the nation, and then for the early battleground states of Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. Nationwide: Trump is at 59 percent, to Gov. Ron DeSantis at 13 percent. Former Gov. Nikki Haley is 8 percent, with tech veteran Vivek Ramaswammy at 5 percent. It gets no better in the early states. New Hampshire: Trump 50, DeSantis 17, Haley 10, and Ramaswamy at 5 percent. Let’s go to Iowa: Trump 45, Haley 14, DeSantis 10, and former Gov. Chris Christie at 9 percent. On Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence quit the race.
“So, What Does This Mean?” – As a political analyst, I can promise you one thing: This still is NOT in the bag for Trump. There will be more debates, whether Trump participates or not, and so the chance of another candidate catching the public’s fancy still exists. I also think the opening primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, will begin to winnow the list of candidates as some drop out. Some of these folks are “never-Trumpers” who likely will throw support to someone like DeSantis or Haley, giving them momentum.
“Four’s a Crowd” – I think the most fascinating development this past week was a new USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, which examines a four-way race including Presidents Biden and Trump, along with independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Cornel West. Biden and Trump are tied with 37 percent of the vote. Kennedy pulls in a surprising 13 percent, with West garnering 4 percent, and the remaining 9 percent undecided. While many have speculated that the former Democratic candidate Kennedy, would pull support from Biden, the poll says the opposite. Two-thirds of Kennedy supporters said they would vote Republican if Kennedy dropped out. You’ll recall that Kennedy was a huge anti-vaccination proponent, a cause that was dear to many conservative Republicans during COVID-19. My boss has a perhaps implausible theory, that Trump should pick Kennedy as his running-mate, to assure a win. Politics often makes for strange bedfellows! It’s not out of Trump’s realm of options. I still say he picks Haley.
“Independents are Driving the Bus!” – In the latest numbers from 2022 compiled by Ballotpedia.org, 39 percent of registered voters in the U.S. are Democrats, and 36 percent are Republicans. The remaining 25 percent are third-party or Independents. Thirty-three states make their voter registration by party affiliation public. In nine of those states, registered Independents came in first place. My point is neither Democrats nor Republicans can win the White House outright. They need a predominance of Independents and undecideds to seal the deal.
“Our House is a Very, Very Fine House!” – It seems like it took “a month of Sundays,” but we finally have a Speaker of the House of Representatives. The GOP caucus nominated Reps. Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and Tom Emmer, but all failed to secure the 217 votes needed to be elected Speaker of the House. The fourth nominee, Rep. Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana finally ended the stalemate on Wednesday by winning the gavel. The House, which spent the last three weeks in gridlock, was finally free to act. “As soon as we elected Speaker Johnson, we voted on a resolution that shows America stands with Israel, as it defends itself from barbaric war launched by Hamas,” said Rep, Carol Miller (R) West Virginia.
“House GOP Chaos” – I had a fascinating interview with Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia about the process. Party caucus meetings are “members only” and the press is not allowed inside. But you know when they nominate three candidates for Speaker and all get rejected, it must be ugly and chaotic. Even the members of the caucus had to surrender their cell phones before going inside. So, I asked the Congressman what it was like? Mooney said, “You know actually it’s a lot of honest, even heart-wrenching conversations at times. People wear their emotions on their sleeves. There’s no yelling back and forth, generally. I actually like the fact that we don’t have our cell phones on you. It forces us to just talk to each other, instead of being on our phones, which I just think we need camaraderie. We need to unite.”
“The Fallout” – Congressman Mooney is an astute politico. Prior to moving to West Virginia, he served in the Maryland State Senate for 12 years and was the Republican Party’s Executive Director for three years. He’s now in his fifth term in Congress. Over the years he’s learned the math and the pitfalls. He knows full well the House Speaker fight could be costly. “We only have a four-seat majority (in the House)” he told me. Mooney added the urgency of getting a speaker and righting the party’s listing ship, “”So, we can get back to work for West Virginian’s and the American people. We have business to take care of.” That agenda includes getting aid to Israel and Ukraine, as well as keeping the U.S. government open past the November 17 deadline.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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