Traveling by car or plane, it is always wise to be prepared for possible inclement weather. While we will not know what will happen until the day, knowing the historical weather averages for the area can help in the decision of when to travel and how long you need to prepare.
Compared to previous years, the daily temperatures for this time of year have been warmer in Michigan. This is due to El Nino.
Weather is unpredictable and the weather could bring a surprise by Christmas Day.
“The specific weather on Christmas could be much different than the generally expected pattern,” said a media representative for the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids.
An Average Thanksgiving Day
The temperature of the area averages between 27 degrees for the low and 39 degrees for the high. The warmest temperature was recorded in 2012 when the daily high registered 65 degrees. The coldest Thanksgiving was in 1950. That year the temperature dropped to 7 degrees.
It is not unusual for the area to see a green Thanksgiving.
According to the representative with the NWS, “For Muskegon, (you see) 1 out of 5 Thanksgivings with snow on the ground”.
The average snowfall for Thanksgiving Day in the Traverse City area is less than half an inch with an average inch (if any) on the ground. The most extreme Thanksgiving was seen one hundred and twenty years ago in 1903 when 19 inches of snow was measured on the ground. Since that year, the most snowfall on Thanksgiving Day was observed in 1952 when just under 5 inches fell.
Christmas Day Outlook
Looking back at area weather patterns can give a general idea of what is to come.
Traverse City has witnessed a range of Christmas Day climate extremes spanning 126 years, from 1896 to 2022. The warmest recorded Christmas Day occurred in 1982, registering at 58 degrees. Meanwhile, the coldest was observed in 2004, dropping to -6 degrees.
In 1995, Traverse City experienced its highest Christmas Day snowfall, accumulating 7.4 inches, and the greatest snow depth was recorded in 1989 at 23 inches.
In contrast to these extreme occurrences, the long-term averages for Christmas Day present a more typical representation of the city’s winter climate. The average high temperature is recorded at 30 degrees, with an average low of 19 degrees. Additionally, snowfall on Christmas Day averages 0.8 inches, accompanied by an average of 5 inches of snow on the ground.
White Christmas?
Even with the current El Nino, winter will still arrive.
“We’ll still get snow storms and cold waves,” the NWS representative said.
A “white Christmas” is defined as having an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. The chance of seeing a white Christmas remains high for this part of the country.
According to the representative, “Once you get to Christmas, 1 out of every 5 years there isn’t snow on the ground.”
Looking back at data collected since 1896 in Traverse City by the NWS, the region has observed a Christmas adorned in snow on 99 occasions. This gives the chance of a white Christmas at approximately 79%.
What the weather will display in a month is yet to be seen. For now, we can look at collected data and plan ahead either for travel or a warm stay at home.
Keep an eye on snow levels across the state with our snow tracker.
